Analyst Ratings January 23, 2026

Citizens Upholds Market Perform Rating on RLI Corp, Cites Balanced Valuation

RLI’s consistent underwriting success and dividend history highlight strengths amid cautious market conditions

By Derek Hwang RLI
Citizens Upholds Market Perform Rating on RLI Corp, Cites Balanced Valuation
RLI

Citizens analyst Matthew Carletti has maintained a Market Perform rating on RLI Corp, emphasizing the company's solid underwriting track record and prudent management strategy within a fairly valued market context. Despite RLI outperforming expectations in recent earnings, its current valuation aligns with industry peers and reflects cautious sentiment toward projected returns.

Key Points

  • RLI demonstrates strong underwriting discipline and a decade-long compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 9% in book value, showcasing effective cycle management within the specialty insurance sector.
  • The company's management tactically capitalizes on hard market opportunities in Casualty insurance lines while remaining cautious in the softening Property market, reflecting adaptability in fluctuating market conditions.
  • RLI’s current valuation metrics, including a 3.0x book value multiple and 19x estimated 2026 earnings, align reasonably compared to peers despite the company's strong historical performance and dividend reliability.

Citizens analyst Matthew Carletti confirmed a Market Perform rating for RLI Corp. (NYSE:RLI), describing the specialty insurer as "an excellent operator maintaining fair valuation in today's market." At present, RLI shares trade around $57.25, close to their 52-week low of $55.80, according to InvestingPro data.

Carletti spotlighted RLI’s distinguished history of underwriting excellence and consistent book value growth, noting a compound annual growth rate near 9% over the last ten years owing to skilled cycle navigation. Complementing this operational strength is the company’s notable achievement of 50 consecutive years of dividend payments.

The analyst highlighted RLI's management strategy, which actively seizes opportunities during hard market periods within select Casualty lines, while adopting a conservative approach in softening markets, such as recently seen in the Property segment.

Despite acknowledging that RLI’s shares merit premium valuation compared to peers, Citizens deems the current multiples appropriate. The stock exchanges hands at roughly 3.0 times book value and 19 times estimated earnings per share for 2026, higher than peer medians of 2.5 times book value and 14 times 2026 EPS.

The firm also noted that RLI’s expected return on equity (ROE) for 2026 stands at 15%, below the peer median of 18%, justifying the Market Perform stance despite solid operational metrics. Current ROE is reported at 24%, with a Financial Health score categorized as "GOOD." Furthermore, InvestingPro’s Fair Value evaluation suggests RLI may presently be undervalued, providing additional insights via subscriber-exclusive ProTips.

RLI recently reported its fourth-quarter earnings for 2025, posting earnings per share of $0.94, which surpassed analyst predictions of $0.79 by nearly 19%. However, revenue for the quarter was $463.24 million, falling short of the expected $474.66 million. Additionally, Jefferies upgraded RLI’s stock rating from Underperform to Hold, citing a marked reduction in valuation. The price-to-book ratio contracted to approximately 2.8 times from levels exceeding 4.0 times a year prior. These results reflect evolving financial dynamics around RLI, highlighting earnings resilience alongside valuation adjustment.

Risks

  • RLI’s projected 2026 return on equity (15%) trails the industry median (18%), possibly limiting investor enthusiasm for higher valuation multiples in the specialty insurance market.
  • Revenue shortfalls relative to expectations in Q4 2025 highlight potential challenges in sustaining top-line growth amid changing insurance market dynamics.
  • The softening conditions in the Property insurance segment introduce uncertainties in premium pricing and underwriting outcomes, impacting overall profitability and market valuation.

More from Analyst Ratings

Palantir Gains After Lofty 2026 Guidance; Analysts Split on Outlook Feb 2, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Starts Coverage of Nebius Group With Buy Rating, $108 Target Feb 2, 2026 Clear Street Starts Coverage on Caribou Biosciences with Buy Rating and $13 Target Feb 2, 2026 Goldman Keeps OLN Neutral at $22 as Olin Signals Rough Q1, Cost Cuts to Cushion Results Feb 2, 2026 Aletheia Capital Starts Coverage on Teradyne With Buy Rating, $400 Target Feb 2, 2026