Citizens has reiterated a Market Outperform rating and left its price objective for Sportradar Group AG (NASDAQ:SRAD) at $34.00, a target that reflects an 87% upside from the stock's quoted price of $18.14. The analyst note highlights recent activity in prediction markets as a potential catalyst, even as the shares trade close to their 52-week low of $17.83.
According to InvestingPro-derived data cited by Citizens, Sportradar is trading below its Fair Value and technical indicators point to oversold conditions. The firm emphasized a significant development in the prediction market landscape: Polymarket has received Authorized Gaming Operator (AGO) status with Major League Soccer (MLS). That authorization permits Polymarket to integrate MLS content into its offering and product in a manner similar to the way traditional sports betting operators such as DraftKings and FanDuel incorporate league content.
Citizens framed the MLS AGO decision as following a prior NHL partnership, saying these arrangements demonstrate an evolution in how prediction markets are perceived when integrity services are present. The note suggests the MLS agreement could open the door to commercial discussions between Sportradar and Polymarket.
The analyst identified the provision of official league data as a central commercial opportunity. Should market makers or platforms leveraging the Polymarket exchange seek to provide MLS or NHL-related products, Citizens notes they would need to use Sportradar's official data if agreements are executed. The firm also pointed to potential upside from integrity services tied to official data and from ancillary, data-derived upsell opportunities.
Despite those potential pathways, Citizens was clear that immediate revenue growth is unlikely from Polymarket or other betting exchanges. With the MLS season starting next month, the firm stated such collaborations generally require time to convert into measurable revenue. Still, Citizens views the MLS deal as a second validation - after the NHL arrangement - that official data providers can secure a role in a developing market that Citizens estimates could generate $10 billion in trading revenue at maturity.
The note arrives amid a cluster of analyst updates on Sportradar. Guggenheim raised its price target to $35.00 while maintaining a Buy rating. Stifel initiated coverage with a Buy rating and set a $28.00 price target, highlighting what it characterized as predictable revenue and minimal risk. Benchmark reiterated its Buy rating and sustained a $30.00 target, pointing to strong core execution and disciplined cost control as drivers for expected growth.
Citizens also assigned a Market Outperform rating to Genius Sports, with a $17.00 price target, while observing that the company faces regulatory scrutiny in Arizona connected to prediction market offerings. In a related commentary, Needham expressed a favorable view of sports data providers in light of Major League Soccer's partnership with Polymarket, which requires use of official league data plus third-party integrity monitoring.
Collectively, these recent moves and analyst reactions underscore active dynamics within the sports technology and data sectors as prediction market models and integrity services continue to evolve. Citizens' stance on Sportradar rests on the view that official data licensing and integrity monitoring represent core levers for monetization as the prediction market segment develops.
Key points
- Citizens keeps a Market Outperform rating and a $34.00 target on Sportradar, implying roughly 87% upside from the current price of $18.14; the stock sits near a 52-week low of $17.83.
- Polymarket's AGO status with Major League Soccer is cited as a meaningful validation for prediction markets when paired with integrity services, potentially creating negotiations over official data provision with Sportradar.
- Other analysts have been active on Sportradar: Guggenheim raised its target to $35.00 (Buy), Stifel started coverage with a Buy and $28.00 target, and Benchmark reiterated Buy at $30.00; these notes emphasize positioning, revenue predictability, and cost control.
Risks and uncertainties
- Commercial agreements with exchanges and market operators take time to convert into revenue, so any near-term uplift from Polymarket or similar platforms is not expected.
- Regulatory scrutiny of prediction market activity - highlighted by Arizona's focus on offerings from companies such as Genius Sports - underscores legal and compliance risks for the sector.
- Negotiations for official data deals are not guaranteed; the realization of benefits tied to official data provision and integrity services depends on successful contract execution.