On Friday, Citizens Investment downgraded The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) from Market Outperform to Market Perform, driven by escalating competitive pressures within the digital advertising technology space. Presently, shares of The Trade Desk are priced at $36.82, marking a substantial 69.1% decline over the last twelve months according to data from InvestingPro.
The downgrade from Citizens addresses growing concerns that competition is becoming fiercer for The Trade Desk, particularly as generative AI technology is poised to reduce switching costs among demand-side platforms (DSPs). By simplifying the interface for programmatic advertising purchases, generative AI may ease transitions between platforms, potentially eroding The Trade Desk’s competitive advantages.
One competitor highlighted by Citizens is Amazon, which benefits structurally due to its possession of the industry's most extensive retail media data set. This advantage provides Amazon with a unique position in the digital ad marketplace, posing a notable challenge to The Trade Desk’s market share and growth prospects.
Despite these hurdles, market analyses indicate The Trade Desk appears undervalued relative to current pricing. The consensus rating from various analysts remains moderately bullish at 2.13 on a scale where values between Buy and Hold are represented. Citizens cites the absence of imminent catalysts that could substantially enhance financial performance as a reason for a cautious outlook, leading to what it describes as a balanced risk and reward dynamic at today’s valuation levels.
The rating adjustment arrives amid a period of shifting dynamics in digital advertising technology, where maintaining a competitive edge grows increasingly challenging. The Trade Desk faces pressured conditions that impact its ability to sustain market share amid these technological and market-based changes.
Other analyst views vary. BofA Securities has lowered its price target to $40 and maintained an Underperform stance, expecting the company's fourth-quarter 2025 results to align with existing guidance on revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). Conversely, Cannonball Research has maintained a Buy rating, with a $70 price target, emphasizing The Trade Desk’s OpenPath product contribution now representing roughly 10% of revenue in the third quarter of 2025, attributable to growing adoption by major connected TV publishers.
MoffettNathanson upgraded its rating from Sell to Neutral and fixed a $39 price target following the steep decline in share price. Stifel continues to rate The Trade Desk as a Buy and identified it as its top pick within the Ad Tech sector, factoring in the company’s navigation through previous obstacles involving its Kokai platform and the anticipated advertising upswing related to the 2025 U.S. Presidential election cycle.
Additionally, Guggenheim adjusted its price forecast lower to $50, citing mounting competition but retained a Buy rating, seeing an appealing risk-reward profile despite challenges inherent in the marketplace. These analyst developments reflect a diversity of opinions, with cautious optimism prevailing concerning The Trade Desk’s operational performance and strategic positioning.