Analyst Ratings January 27, 2026

Citizens Keeps Market Perform on Peloton Ahead of FY2Q26 Results

Analyst cautious on subscriber momentum after recent price hikes but notes improved cost control and execution

By Nina Shah PTON
Citizens Keeps Market Perform on Peloton Ahead of FY2Q26 Results
PTON

Citizens reiterated a Market Perform rating on Peloton Interactive (PTON) ahead of the company’s FY2Q26 earnings release, citing disciplined expense management that could bolster EBITDA while remaining cautious on near-term subscriber growth after recent price increases. Analysts tracked by InvestingPro expect Peloton to return to profitability this fiscal year, and the stock has underperformed the NASDAQ over the past year.

Key Points

  • Citizens reaffirmed a Market Perform rating on Peloton ahead of FY2Q26 earnings and pointed to effective expense control that could support upside to EBITDA.
  • Peloton reported $143.4 million in trailing-twelve-month EBITDA; the stock has fallen 11% since FY1Q26 results and is down 27.5% over the past year, trading slightly below Fair Value per InvestingPro.
  • Recent subscription price increases are expected to lift churn temporarily - Citizens forecasts Connected Fitness churn at 2.0% this quarter - and the firm does not expect subscriber growth to recover immediately.

Context and rating

Citizens has reiterated a Market Perform rating on Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) as the company approaches its FY2Q26 earnings report, scheduled for February 5th according to InvestingPro data. The firm described an incrementally constructive view on Peloton’s operational control, particularly management’s ability to contain costs, which could translate into stronger-than-anticipated EBITDA performance.

Financial and share-price backdrop

Peloton’s most recent reported trailing-twelve-month EBITDA stood at $143.4 million. Since reporting FY1Q26 results, Peloton shares have fallen 11%, while the NASDAQ has gained roughly 1% over the same period. That weakness in the stock contributed to a larger 27.5% decline over the past 12 months. InvestingPro analysis cited in Citizens’ research indicates the equity is trading slightly below its Fair Value estimate.

Subscriber dynamics and the price increase

Despite the more positive tone on expense management, Citizens maintained its Market Perform rating pending clearer evidence that subscriber growth can be sustained. The firm does not expect a rebound in subscriber growth in the upcoming quarter, noting that a recent round of price increases is likely to weigh on near-term additions.

On September 31, Peloton implemented price increases across several subscription tiers: Connected Fitness rose from $44 to $49.99, App+ moved from $24 to $28.99, and App One increased from $12 to $15.99. The company has previously signaled that churn was tracking toward expectations following these changes.

Citizens models a temporary uptick in Connected Fitness churn of approximately 60 basis points above seasonal levels, taking churn to 2.0% in the current quarter. The firm likened this pattern to the response seen after the prior price increase and expects churn to normalize quickly in FY3Q26.

Profitability outlook and research resources

Although Peloton is operating at a loss presently, InvestingPro-sourced consensus among analysts points to a profitable outcome this fiscal year, with an EPS forecast of $0.15. Citizens points investors to the comprehensive Pro Research Report on Peloton for additional detail into the company’s financial position and prospects.

Corporate governance and shareholder matters

At its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Peloton reported the re-election of three Class III directors. Karen Boone, Chris Bruzzo, and Tara Comonte were each re-elected to three-year terms.

Other analyst and market signals

UBS has separately maintained a Buy rating and a $11.00 price target on Peloton, highlighting that October web traffic rose modestly by 0.2% year-over-year. In contrast, a Bloomberg report cited initial slow sales for Peloton’s new AI-powered exercise equipment, even as retail partners such as Dick’s Sporting Goods and Johnson Fitness & Wellness reported increased foot traffic.

Partnerships and clinical study

Peloton has announced several strategic initiatives, including a partnership with the Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix to create exclusive fitness content during the race weekend. The collaboration will feature classes held at the Awakening Theatre at Wynn Las Vegas and will include appearances by well-known instructors.

In health-focused developments, Peloton and Respin Health published a study showing that 84% of women reported improvements in menopause symptoms after completing a 60-day fitness and coaching program.

Takeaway

Citizens’ stance balances acknowledgment of tighter expense control and the possibility of stronger EBITDA against skepticism that subscription growth will rebound immediately after the price increases. The firm awaits clearer evidence on subscriber momentum before upgrading its view.

Risks

  • Subscriber churn risk tied to the recent price increases - elevated churn could pressure the consumer discretionary and subscription-revenue models in the near term.
  • Product adoption risk for new AI-powered hardware - early reports of slow initial sales could affect Peloton’s hardware revenue and retail partner performance, impacting the fitness technology and retail sectors.
  • Execution and timing risk around re-normalization of churn - if churn does not normalize as expected, the path to sustained subscriber growth and forecasted profitability may be delayed, with implications for investor returns in the consumer tech and fitness markets.

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