Cantor Fitzgerald has initiated coverage of Visa (NYSE:V) with an Overweight recommendation and a price objective of $400, the firm said on Tuesday.
In its initiating note, Cantor argued Visa benefits from a strong competitive position. The research team described the company as operating behind a "deep, duopolistic competitive moat" together with MA. Cantor framed Visa primarily as a transaction facilitator rather than a mover of money, a distinction the firm said mitigates the threat posed by potential alternative instruments such as stablecoins.
The analyst house highlighted two structural growth drivers for Visa. First, Cantor pointed to continued upside from the global migration away from paper-based payment methods toward electronic payments, particularly in less-developed regions where electronic penetration remains incomplete. Second, the firm emphasized the enlarging total addressable market driven by Visa’s Value-Added Services and New Flows businesses, which Cantor said meaningfully expand opportunities and help "future-proof the model."
On valuation, Cantor derived the $400 target by applying 27 times its calendar year 2027 EPS estimate of $15.01 and supplementing that multiple approach with discounted cash flow analysis. Cantor said Visa can generate modest additional growth through pricing as it broadens its Value-Added Services suite and as the share of digital transactions rises within total transaction volumes.
The note also flagged several risks that could affect Visa’s trajectory. These include ongoing and potential legal and regulatory actions such as the Department of Justice antitrust suit; the emergence of government-sponsored regional payment systems as competitive alternatives; and potential downstream effects if technologies and new market entrants - including blockchain, stablecoins, and neobanks - erode the market power of incumbent banks.
Several other recent developments in the payments and adjacent markets were noted in the broader reporting around Visa. Apple is reportedly in talks with Mastercard and Visa to launch a digital payments service in India, with a phased rollout targeted for 2026 subject to regulatory and commercial approvals. UBS has reiterated its Buy rating on Visa and maintained a $425 price target, and the bank expects Visa’s net revenue growth may accelerate in fiscal year 2026.
Visa also updated its class B stock conversion rates following a $500 million deposit into its U.S. litigation escrow account, with the conversion change becoming effective December 23. Separately, Morgan Stanley called out a payments-sector trend toward agentic commerce, forecasting that security-focused investments tied to that trend could benefit firms offering improved fraud detection by 2026.
In the cryptocurrency space, William Blair continues to express confidence in select operators, characterizing current weakness as an entry point for long-term investors and naming Coinbase and Circle as firms positioned to play roles in crypto integration and USDC commercialization, respectively. Collectively, these items reflect ongoing shifts and evolving opportunities across payments and cryptocurrency ecosystems.
Key points
- Cantor Fitzgerald initiates Visa coverage with an Overweight rating and a $400 price target based on 27 times 2027 EPS of $15.01 plus DCF analysis.
- Firm cites Visa’s duopolistic position with MA, the move from paper to electronic payments in emerging regions, and expansion of Value-Added Services and New Flows as growth drivers.
- Related industry developments include potential Apple payment services in India, UBS maintaining a $425 target, Visa’s class B stock conversion update tied to a $500 million litigation escrow deposit, and sector commentary from Morgan Stanley and William Blair.
Risks and uncertainties
- Legal and regulatory exposure, such as the Department of Justice antitrust action, could materially affect Visa’s business and revenues.
- Competition from government-sponsored regional payment systems may erode market share in certain geographies.
- Technological and market shifts - specifically blockchain, stablecoins, and neobanks - could reduce banks’ market power and create downstream impacts for Visa’s model.