Canaccord Genuity has again put its weight behind Hillman Solutions Corp., reaffirming a Buy rating and a $15.00 price objective for the company’s stock (NASDAQ:HLMN) as investors await Hillman’s fourth-quarter results scheduled for February 17. That price target equates to approximately a 51% increase from the most recent quoted share price of $9.92, and is consistent with analyst targets ranging from $10 to $15 reported by InvestingPro.
To assess demand dynamics, Canaccord conducted its tenth edition of customer checks, visiting 51 Hillman customer locations across the United States. The retail sampling included national chains and specialty outlets such as Ace Hardware, Home Depot and Tractor Supply, alongside traditional hardware and lumber supply stores.
Survey responses, according to Canaccord, show business patterns this winter that resemble prior years. The firm noted that faster-than-typical price increases for fasteners and persistently elevated lumber costs have weighed on demand for larger construction projects. At the same time, Canaccord highlighted a potential seasonal effect - inclement winter weather could suppress activity in the short term but may boost project work in spring, a period when Hillman’s exposure to repair-and-maintenance demand could benefit the company.
Canaccord pointed to Hillman’s recent financial profile as evidence of resilience. The company reported a gross profit margin of 48.8% and delivered 4.5% revenue growth over the last twelve months. Those metrics, the analyst house said, help explain why it has maintained its fourth-quarter estimates for Hillman and only modestly raised its projections for 2026.
Notably, Canaccord emphasized that roughly 75% of Hillman’s revenue is derived from repair-and-remodel activities commonly undertaken either before a home sale or following a home purchase. That mix, the research firm argues, gives Hillman considerable sensitivity to any recovery in housing turnover - a point that led Canaccord to label Hillman a "focus stock" with the potential for "significant outperformance" as housing activity normalizes. Within Canaccord’s coverages of home-sector companies, the firm believes Hillman carries the most leverage to a housing market rebound.
Supporting Canaccord’s stance, InvestingPro analysis cited in the research notes a solid liquidity position and recent price momentum for Hillman. The data referenced a current ratio of 2.46 and a year-to-date return of 14.6%, and indicated that subscribers can access a deeper Pro Research Report containing additional ProTips and granular financial metrics.
Additional company developments detailed in the research include Hillman’s third-quarter 2025 results, where the company topped earnings-per-share expectations with an EPS of $0.22 versus a $0.20 forecast, while revenue slightly missed projections at $424.9 million compared with an anticipated $425.05 million. Credit rating action followed these financial moves: Fitch Ratings upgraded Hillman’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating to "BB" from "BB-" on the basis of debt reduction and sustained EBITDA leverage. The senior secured term loan rating was also raised to "BB+" as repayment prospects improved.
Canaccord’s reiterated Buy call and $15 price target came amid developments involving Home Depot, cited in the research as a significant Hillman customer. Stifel, another firm mentioned in the research, also kept a Buy rating on Hillman but set a lower price target at $12.20; Stifel pointed out the stock’s post-earnings decline despite the EPS beat.
Taken together, the analyst checks, corporate financials, and ratings actions paint a picture of a company that has produced measurable financial progress and is navigating cost pressures, even as market reaction to recent results has been mixed. Investors will be watching Hillman’s upcoming fourth-quarter report for confirmation of the trends Canaccord observed in its customer survey and for any additional guidance on the company’s leverage to housing-related activity.