BTIG has reiterated a Buy recommendation on Steven Madden and assigned a $50.00 price target after meetings with the company’s management held during FFANY Market Week. That target implies approximately a 29% upside from the stock’s then-current quote of $38.76 and exceeds the market's fair-value assessment, suggesting the analyst sees valuation room despite recent gains.
The research note highlights continued momentum in Steven Madden’s branded footwear segment, which the firm attributes to favorable fashion trends and effective operational execution. That strength is reflected in the stock’s 56.2% price appreciation over the prior six months.
Nevertheless, BTIG cautions that headwinds originating in 2025 are likely to persist into 2026, with the private-label business sold through mass merchants singled out as a particular pressure point. To account for this, the firm trimmed its 2026 revenue projections, forecasting that a year-over-year decline in private label could produce a low single-digit percentage drag on overall top-line growth.
Concretely, BTIG now models revenue growth of 10% in total and 2% on an organic basis for 2026, down from prior assumptions of 12% total and 4% organic growth. Available financial data show Steven Madden’s revenue increased 6.41% over the last twelve months, and consensus analyst estimates point to roughly 11% revenue growth for fiscal 2025.
On the expense side, BTIG anticipates slightly higher SG&A outlays to support investments in China and the reinstatement of executive and stock-based compensation. The firm flagged the first quarter of the upcoming fiscal year as a particular near-term squeeze, modeling first-quarter earnings per share of $0.48 versus a consensus estimate near $0.58.
Looking further forward, BTIG introduced a 2027 EPS projection of $2.60. That estimate assumes low single-digit percentage expansion in the core business, low double-digit percentage growth from the recently acquired Kurt Geiger brand, and modest operating-margin improvement. Ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call in late February, BTIG retained Steven Madden as its SMID Cap Top Pick.
BTIG’s note also observed that Steven Madden now carries premium valuation multiples, with a reported price-to-earnings ratio of 49.46 and a price-to-book multiple of 3.31. Independent financial data point to a set of company strengths cited by analysts, including eight consecutive years of dividend payments and cash flow sufficient to cover interest obligations.
Analyst sentiment around the stock remains mixed. UBS has remained Neutral with a $43.00 price target. Williams Trading raised its target to $52.00, referencing strong sales over the Thanksgiving weekend and positive consumer reception. BTIG reiterated its $50.00 target following its management meetings. Conversely, Jefferies downgraded Steven Madden from Hold to Underperform and lowered its target to $30.00, citing mounting wholesale pressures as the rationale.
Separately, Needham downgraded Nike from Buy to Hold, expressing concerns that the athletic giant’s turnaround is progressing more slowly than expected despite management’s initiatives. Together, these various updates underscore a split in analyst views across both branded footwear and the broader apparel and footwear retail complex.
Investors will likely focus on the company’s upcoming quarterly report and management commentary for additional clarity on the private-label recovery timeline, margin trajectory, and the impact of incremental investments in China and Kurt Geiger integration.