Analyst Ratings January 27, 2026

BofA Lowers W.R. Berkley Price Target to $66, Keeps Neutral Rating

Analyst cites weaker alternative investment returns and reserve development; buybacks exceeded expectations

By Marcus Reed WRB
BofA Lowers W.R. Berkley Price Target to $66, Keeps Neutral Rating
WRB

BofA Securities reduced its price target on W.R. Berkley to $66.00 from $69.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating. The firm attributed a slight earnings shortfall to weaker alternative investment returns and unfavorable reserve development, partly offset by stronger traditional investment income and outsized share repurchases. The insurer reported quarterly EPS of $1.13 and revenue of $3.72 billion, beating revenue expectations.

Key Points

  • BofA cut W.R. Berkley’s price target to $66.00 from $69.00 and kept a Neutral rating; the new target is below a Fair Value estimate and the stock trades at a P/E of 14.
  • Fourth-quarter 2025 EPS came in at $1.13, in line with expectations, while revenue of $3.72 billion exceeded the projected $3.19 billion, a 16.61% revenue surprise.
  • BofA attributed the earnings shortfall primarily to $0.08 per share from lower alternative investment returns and $0.06 per share from unfavorable reserve development; $0.04 per share from higher traditional investment income partially offset these impacts.

BofA Securities trimmed its 12-month price objective for W.R. Berkley to $66.00 from $69.00 on Tuesday and left its rating on the insurer at Neutral. The revised target sits below a Fair Value estimate, a gap that the research team noted alongside the stock trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.

The update followed W.R. Berkley’s fourth-quarter 2025 results. BofA indicated the company’s results were a penny short of the firm’s $4.14 per share forecast, although they aligned with the broader Street consensus. Separately, data show W.R. Berkley carries a Piotroski Score of 9, a metric that points to strong financial health despite the minor earnings miss.

In its analysis, BofA identified two principal drivers behind the earnings shortfall. Lower returns from alternative investments trimmed results by $0.08 per share, while less favorable development of reserves reduced results by $0.06 per share. Those headwinds were partially mitigated by higher core or traditional investment income, which added $0.04 per share to the quarter.

The research note also highlighted the company’s capital deployment choices during the quarter. W.R. Berkley repurchased $196 million of its own shares in the period, a level materially higher than BofA’s prior expectation of $50 million. The scale of buybacks, the firm said, signals management’s preference for returning capital to shareholders rather than pursuing top-line expansion.

Additional reported results for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed earnings per share of $1.13, a figure that matched analyst expectations. Revenue for the period came in at $3.72 billion, ahead of the projected $3.19 billion and representing a revenue surprise of 16.61% versus forecasts. That revenue outperformance was noted as evidence of operational strength in the quarter.

Taken together, the earnings and revenue figures, the investment return mix, reserve movement and buyback activity form the basis of BofA’s updated valuation work and its decision to lower the price target while maintaining a Neutral stance. The firm’s breakdown of the per-share impacts provides an explicit view of what moved quarterly results.


Context and implications

The company’s combination of a modest P/E multiple, very strong Piotroski score and an updated analyst target below a Fair Value estimate creates a mixed picture for investors. Revenue strength was a clear positive in the quarter, while investment returns outside the core portfolio and reserve development were identifiable negatives that weighed on per-share results.

Investors and market participants will likely focus on the company’s ability to sustain core investment income, the trajectory of reserve development and whether buybacks remain a priority over organic revenue growth.

Risks

  • Lower returns from alternative investments reduced quarterly results by $0.08 per share, posing continued earnings risk if those returns remain weak - impacts financial and insurance sectors.
  • Less favorable reserve development subtracted $0.06 per share, introducing uncertainty around underwriting and reserving - impacts insurance underwriting and financial stability metrics.
  • Management’s heavy use of buybacks ($196 million repurchased versus an expected $50 million) may prioritize shareholder returns over top-line growth, which could affect long-term revenue expansion and operational investment plans - impacts corporate capital allocation and insurance growth prospects.

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