BofA Securities moved its 12-month price target on Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) up to $334.00 from $328.00 and reiterated a Buy recommendation following a month in which the company added a material number of net new policies. The upgrade arrives against a backdrop of valuation measures and operational developments that analysts say merit attention.
According to data cited alongside the analyst action, InvestingPro flags Progressive as undervalued, noting a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 11.64 and a price/earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.35 relative to its growth trajectory. Those metrics underline the basis for BofA's maintained constructive stance.
Progressive recorded 211,000 net new policies in December, a result that notably exceeded BofA's internal forecast of zero net growth for the month and outpaced Street expectations. Bloomberg-derived consensus figures show a median forecast of 66,000 and a mean forecast of 121,000, making the actual December gain markedly stronger than the broad market anticipated. The insurer has also reported solid revenue momentum, with revenue rising 18.35% over the last twelve months.
On a month-over-month basis, Progressive's policy-in-force expanded by 0.8% in December 2025. That pace ranks among the firm's strongest December performances, with only December readings of 0.9% in 2002, 2017, and 2024 recording faster month-over-month growth.
BofA's analysis suggested that calendar effects - specifically the placement of weekends and holidays in November and December - may have amplified December's reported strength. Those timing dynamics, the firm argued, could have contributed to a comparatively weak November 2025 outcome of 47,000 new policies.
The BofA note also placed December's results in a longer-run context. Using 2001-2024 data, the analyst team reported that average month-over-month policy-in-force growth has been around 0.3% for November and roughly zero for December. They further observed that Progressive's net policy count growth historically clusters in the first half of the year, with February, March, and April typically the strongest months for additions.
Corporate developments at Progressive accompanied the period's operational results. The company announced that Chief Financial Officer John Sauerland will retire in July 2026 after 35 years of service. Andrew Quigg, currently serving as Chief Strategy Officer, has been named Sauerland's successor, with a transition period planned to facilitate a handover of responsibilities.
Progressive has also expanded its product offering, launching a new pet insurance product for cats and dogs that is now available in 43 states plus the District of Columbia. The plans, underwritten by Progressive, provide coverage for unexpected veterinary costs and include Accident and Illness coverage along with optional Wellness endorsements.
Brokerage views remain mixed outside of BofA's Buy. Morgan Stanley reiterated an Underweight rating for Progressive even as it acknowledged strong policy-in-force growth. Meanwhile, BMO Capital trimmed its price target to $239.00 from $253.00, a move the firm tied to recent rate activity in Florida. Progressive has filed for a 9% rate reduction for agent-sold policies in Florida and a 6% decrease for direct-to-consumer policies there, reflecting local pricing adjustments and broader strategic responses to market conditions.
Taken together, the analyst actions, filings, and corporate changes depict a company navigating rapid policy growth, active product development, and regional pricing dynamics while managing a scheduled leadership change at the finance function.
Summary
BofA raised Progressive's price target to $334 and kept a Buy rating after the insurer added 211,000 net new policies in December, materially beating forecasts. Valuation metrics cited by InvestingPro indicate a low P/E and PEG ratio. The company is undergoing a CFO transition and has launched a pet insurance product, while other brokers and regulatory filings reflect differing views on the company's near-term outlook.
Key points
- BofA increased its Progressive price target to $334 from $328 and maintained a Buy rating following strong December policy gains.
- Progressive added 211,000 net new policies in December, exceeding BofA and Street forecasts, and reported 18.35% revenue growth over the past year.
- Corporate moves include the planned retirement of CFO John Sauerland in July 2026 and the appointment of Andrew Quigg as his successor; Progressive also introduced a pet insurance product available in 43 states and DC.
Risks and uncertainties
- Regulatory and pricing risk in state markets - Progressive has filed for rate decreases in Florida (9% for agent-sold policies and 6% for direct-to-consumer), which could influence premium revenue in that state.
- Analyst divergence - While BofA remains constructive, Morgan Stanley holds an Underweight stance and BMO Capital has cut its price target, creating mixed broker sentiment that may affect investor perceptions.
- Seasonality and timing effects - Calendar placement of weekends and holidays may have distorted month-to-month comparisons, as noted by BofA, suggesting short-term volatility in reported new policy counts.