Analyst Ratings January 28, 2026

BofA Lifts NVR Price Target to $8,600 After Strong Q4 Results; BTIG Starts Coverage with Buy

Analysts point to upside in 2026 earnings after NVR topped estimates on EPS, revenue and margins

By Hana Yamamoto NVR
BofA Lifts NVR Price Target to $8,600 After Strong Q4 Results; BTIG Starts Coverage with Buy
NVR

BofA Securities raised its price target on NVR Inc. to $8,600 from $8,400 and kept a Buy rating following the homebuilder's fourth-quarter 2025 results. NVR reported EPS of $121.54, beating both BofA and consensus forecasts, and homebuilding revenue of $2.64 billion, which was down 5% year-over-year but topped BofA's projection. BTIG initiated coverage with a Buy and a $9,022 target, citing the company's location focus, production facility network and finished lot strategy as drivers of strong returns on equity.

Key Points

  • BofA raised its NVR price target to $8,600 from $8,400 and maintained a Buy rating after the fourth-quarter 2025 results.
  • NVR reported Q4 EPS of $121.54, beating BofA's $114.38 forecast and the consensus of $107.13; homebuilding revenue was $2.64 billion, down 5% year-over-year but 7% above BofA expectations.
  • BTIG initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $9,022 price target, citing location focus, production facility-driven cost efficiencies, and a 100% finished lot option land bank as drivers of strong returns on equity.

Overview

BofA Securities has increased its price target for NVR Inc. (NYSE:NVR) to $8,600 from $8,400 while reaffirming a Buy rating on the stock. The move follows NVR’s fourth-quarter 2025 financial report, which delivered results ahead of both BofA’s and consensus expectations on several key metrics.

Quarterly results and analyst response

NVR reported earnings per share of $121.54 for the quarter, outpacing BofA’s forecast of $114.38 and the consensus estimate of $107.13. Homebuilding revenue for the period was $2.64 billion, a 5% decline from the same quarter a year earlier, but nonetheless 7% higher than BofA had anticipated. The company also posted gross margin and SG&A expense outcomes that were better than the firm had modeled.

BofA responded to the quarter by nudging up its 2026 EPS projections for NVR by 1%, citing a higher absorption rate as the key factor behind the revision. The firm’s newly stated price target is calibrated to 20 times expected 2026 earnings. In its assessment, BofA singled out NVR among homebuilders for the potential to expand return-on-equity and suggested there is upside to consensus 2026 estimates.

Independent initiation from BTIG

Separately, BTIG has initiated coverage on NVR with a Buy rating, assigning a price target of $9,022.00. BTIG highlighted NVR’s strategic emphasis on location and cost efficiencies driven by its production facility network. The research firm also noted the company’s 100% finished lot option land bank, crediting these elements with delivering leading returns on equity and shareholder returns over time. BTIG framed these factors as supporting confidence in NVR’s operational capabilities and in the company’s prospects for future cash deployment.

Valuation context

According to InvestingPro data cited by analysts, the range of price targets on NVR spans from $7,910 to $9,022. The stock is reported to be trading slightly below its Fair Value, reflecting proximity to consensus valuation while leaving room for analyst-driven upside if 2026 earnings materialize as expected.

Takeaway

Analysts from BofA and BTIG are aligning behind NVR following a quarter that beat on EPS and key operating metrics. BofA’s modest upward revision to 2026 estimates and its 20-times earnings-based target, along with BTIG’s favorable initiation, frame the current view of NVR as a homebuilder with potential for improved returns on equity, provided execution on absorption and cost efficiencies continues to hold.


Risks

  • Year-over-year homebuilding revenue declined 5% in the quarter, a factor that could affect near-term top-line growth in the homebuilding sector.
  • Analyst targets range from $7,910 to $9,022 and the stock is trading slightly below its Fair Value, indicating valuation sensitivity and limited margin for error.
  • BofA’s modest 1% increase to 2026 EPS estimates was tied to a higher absorption rate, highlighting earnings sensitivity to absorption and related operational execution.

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