BofA Securities has increased its 12-month price target on HCA Healthcare Inc to $540.00 from $485.00 while keeping a Neutral rating on the shares. The stock was trading near $508.84, roughly 2.1% below its 52-week high of $520, and data from a professional research service indicates the shares appear slightly above their assessed Fair Value.
The uplift to the target stems from BofA's analysis of HCA's guidance for 2026. That guidance calls for revenue growth in a range of 0.6% to 6.5% - broadly in line with consensus expectations. The company’s guidance does not incorporate several pending Supplemental Directed Payment programs, most notably a program in Florida that BofA says could add more than $500 million if realized.
HCA is a large-cap healthcare company with a market capitalization reported at $116.21 billion. Over the last twelve months the company delivered revenue growth of 6.82%, a contribution cited in BofA’s reassessment of valuation and outlook.
BofA analyst Joanna Gajuk outlined the components of HCA’s guidance and the company’s internal headwinds and tailwinds. She stated that the guidance factors in $600 million to $900 million of exchange-related pressure, along with $250 million to $450 million of pressure tied to Supplemental Directed Payment programs on a year-over-year basis. Offsetting those pressures, the company expects roughly $400 million of cost savings from its resiliency program, and BofA highlights strong core growth within HCA’s operations.
At the midpoint of the guidance range, core growth is about 9%, a pace that exceeds HCA’s stated long-term growth trend of 4% to 6%. The company did not provide granular detail on the specific drivers behind that elevated midpoint projection.
HCA reiterated its long-term objective of growing EBITDA by 4% to 6% over time while simultaneously raising its capital expenditure outlook. BofA’s revised price target implies a valuation of 10.9 times estimated 2026 EBITDA, up from the prior 10.1 times, a change BofA says partly reflects the upside that could come from Florida’s Supplemental Directed Payment program. Separately, HCA’s current EBITDA is reported at $15.1 billion, and the enterprise value to EBITDA multiple stands at 11.0.
Analytical coverage from a professional research product highlights a number of corporate strengths, including an aggressive program of share repurchases and a high shareholder yield. Investors and analysts are being directed to the research product for expanded coverage on HCA and other large-cap U.S. equities.
Quarterly performance provides additional context for the updated outlook. In the fourth quarter of 2025 HCA reported earnings per share of $8.01, beating the consensus analyst estimate of $7.45. Revenue for the quarter came in at $19.51 billion, slightly under the analyst forecast of $19.67 billion. While the revenue shortfall was modest, the EPS beat drew positive attention from market participants and is cited as evidence of robust profitability and operational execution.
Market participants and sell-side analysts continue to monitor HCA’s strategic investments, cost-savings initiatives and the trajectory of reimbursement-related programs that can materially affect near-term results. The firm’s balance between investment, capital returns and margin management will remain central to future assessments of its valuation and target pricing.
Overall, BofA’s adjusted target and unchanged Neutral rating reflect a view that HCA has both upside potential from contingent payment programs and offsetting pressures reflected in current guidance; the firm’s revised valuation multiple incorporates those competing elements.