Analyst Ratings January 28, 2026

BofA Cuts Ferrari Price Target to $360 Ahead of FY25 Results; Analysts Flag Model Transition and Mix Shifts

Bank trims valuation but keeps Buy rating as Ferrari navigates model changeover, Elettrica dilution and fresh buyback plan

By Sofia Navarro RACE
BofA Cuts Ferrari Price Target to $360 Ahead of FY25 Results; Analysts Flag Model Transition and Mix Shifts
RACE

BofA Securities lowered its price target for Ferrari (RACE) to $360 from $415 while retaining a Buy recommendation ahead of the automaker's fiscal 2025 earnings report. The stock is trading near its 52-week low after a significant six-month decline. BofA pared estimates on weaker pricing assumptions and a recalibrated product mix reflecting higher dilution from the Elettrica model, and projected FY26 figures broadly in line with consensus.

Key Points

  • BofA Securities lowered its Ferrari price target to $360 from $415 but kept a Buy rating ahead of the FY25 earnings release; the stock trades near its 52-week low after a 33.49% decline over six months - impacting equity investors and the luxury automotive sector.
  • BofA reduced estimates on weaker pricing assumptions and a recalibrated mix that factors in higher dilution from the Elettrica model; FY26 projections align with consensus at roughly 7.6 billion in revenue, a 28.9% EBIT margin, 5.2% EBIT growth and 9.5 EPS - relevant to corporate earnings and auto industry suppliers.
  • Ferrari completed a 2 billion buyback early and announced a new 3.5 billion program through 2030; multiple analyst shops issued mixed reactions, including an HSBC downgrade to Hold and modest target adjustments by UBS and Bernstein - affecting investor sentiment and capital markets activity.

BofA Securities has revised down its price objective for Ferrari (NYSE: RACE) to $360.00 from $415.00, while preserving a Buy rating in advance of the company's fiscal year 2025 results. The luxury carmaker's shares are quoted at $337.40, close to a 52-week low of $333.34, having fallen 33.49% over the prior six months. Data from InvestingPro indicate that Ferrari's current market price is effectively aligned with the platform's calculated Fair Value.

The automaker is slated to publish FY25 results on February 10, 2026. Horst Schneider of BofA Securities expects the report to contain no major surprises but anticipates management will adopt a cautious tone in its outlook.

BofA trimmed its forecasts primarily on two fronts: lower pricing assumptions and an updated product-mix view that incorporates greater dilution stemming from the Elettrica model. The bank underscored Ferrari's deliberate pricing stance - specifically, that the company does not simply raise sticker prices to offset inflation - as a factor in its reduced estimates.

For fiscal 2026, BofA's projections now sit broadly alongside consensus. The firm models revenue of roughly 6-7.6 billion, an EBIT margin of 28.9%, year-over-year EBIT growth near 5.2%, and earnings per share around 9.5. BofA characterises fiscal 2026 as a transition year, expecting the first half to be weaker than the second half. The bank attributes that intra-year disparity primarily to model changeovers and the influence of foreign exchange, while still forecasting an absolute increase in earnings despite a modest contraction in EBIT margin.

Separately, Ferrari has completed a 2 billion share repurchase program a year ahead of schedule and unveiled a new 3.5 billion buyback plan that extends through 2030. These capital-return actions follow various analyst moves: HSBC downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold and cut its target to 345.00, citing the company's shift in emphasis toward product mix during the forthcoming F80 model ramp-up. UBS nudged its price target to $555.00 from $563.00 but kept a Buy rating, pointing to management's practice of holding back vehicle units for future deliveries. Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating with a $395.00 target after a briefing call that yielded no major new information.

Additional reporting from Il Sole 24 Ore indicates that members of the Ferrari family may sell up to 5% of their stake without altering an existing shareholder agreement. Collectively, these developments underscore a period of strategic and financial recalibration for the luxury automaker as it navigates product transitions, pricing discipline and ongoing capital allocation decisions.

Risks

  • Model transition and product changeovers could pressure near-term results, producing a weaker first half versus the second half of fiscal 2026 - a risk to automotive production and sales forecasts.
  • Foreign exchange effects may weigh on results during the transition year, introducing additional earnings volatility for the luxury automaker and associated suppliers.
  • Higher dilution from the Elettrica model and Ferrari's pricing discipline (not raising prices simply to offset inflation) may constrain margins and per-unit revenues, posing risks to profitability metrics in the near term.

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