Analyst Ratings January 27, 2026

BofA Cuts CVS Health Price Target to $95 as CMS Proposal Clouds Medicare Advantage Payments

Bank keeps Buy rating while regulatory changes proposed by CMS and industry developments keep investors attentive

By Marcus Reed CVS UNH CI
BofA Cuts CVS Health Price Target to $95 as CMS Proposal Clouds Medicare Advantage Payments
CVS UNH CI

BofA Securities reduced its 12-month price target for CVS Health to $95 from $100 but kept a Buy rating, after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services put forward changes to Medicare Advantage payment methodology that could lower industry payments. The CMS proposals include a lower net all-in rate and a new CMS-HCC risk-adjustment model that would exclude certain diagnosis records, measures that BofA says would remove diagnosis data from unlinked Chart Review Records beginning in CY 2027. Other analyst moves and regulatory scrutiny of insurers and PBMs are also shaping the outlook for CVS.

Key Points

  • BofA lowered its CVS Health price target to $95 from $100 but left its Buy rating unchanged.
  • CMS proposed a net all-in rate of 2.54% for CY 2027 and a CMS-HCC risk model estimated to reduce payments by 1.53% in 2027, with exclusion of diagnosis data from unlinked Chart Review Records.
  • Analyst actions and regulatory scrutiny - including Bernstein's adjusted target and Hunterbrook's investigation into insurers - are influencing investor focus on CVS and the Medicare Advantage and PBM sectors.

BofA Securities has trimmed its price target for CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) to $95.00 from $100.00, while retaining a Buy rating on the shares. CVS was trading at $83.87 at the time the adjustment was reported.

The firm linked the revision to policy proposals issued by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) in its Advance Notice for calendar year 2027. CMS’ proposed measures would produce a net all-in rate of 2.54 percent, below the market’s prior expectations in the 4-6 percent range, according to the report.

CMS is also proposing a new CMS-HCC (Hierarchical Condition Categories) model to calculate risk scores for Medicare Advantage plans. BofA noted that the proposed CMS-HCC approach is estimated to reduce payments by 1.53 percent in 2027. A central component of the change would be the exclusion of diagnosis information originating from unlinked Chart Review Records - so-called CRRs - which CMS says are not associated with a beneficiary encounter.

Under the CMS proposal, diagnosis entries found only in unlinked CRRs would be excluded from the risk score calculation beginning in CY 2027. BofA highlighted those unlinked CRRs as containing diagnostic information that is not tied to an encounter, and therefore subject to exclusion under the proposed rule.

Additional market context accompanies the BofA update. InvestingPro analysis cited in market reports continues to classify CVS as undervalued, with analysts maintaining a consensus Buy recommendation and an upside high target of $105.00.

On the corporate finance front, CVS has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.665 per share payable on February 2, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 22, 2026.

Other investment firms have also adjusted views on CVS. Bernstein raised its price objective to $87.00 and pointed to growth potential through Aetna, but the firm kept a Market Perform rating, citing concerns about headwinds in the pharmacy benefit manager environment. Separately, Cantor Fitzgerald identified CVS Health and UnitedHealth Group as preferred stocks for exposure to Medicare Advantage in 2026, noting a favorable regulatory backdrop for that strategy.

The company also appears in regulatory and investigative headlines. An investigation by Hunterbrook has accused CVS Health, along with UnitedHealth Group and Cigna, of using subsidiaries to divert billions of dollars from health plans and patients. The allegation is part of ongoing scrutiny described in the market commentary.

Taken together, the CMS proposals, analyst target changes, dividend announcement, and investigative findings frame a mixed set of catalysts for CVS. Industry watchers and investors will be monitoring how regulatory revisions to payment models and diagnosis data treatment could influence Medicare Advantage revenue and the broader health insurance and PBM sectors.


Further context

  • CMS proposed net all-in rate for CY 2027: 2.54 percent - below market expectations of 4-6 percent.
  • Estimated payment impact from the proposed CMS-HCC model: -1.53 percent in 2027.
  • Dividend: $0.665 per share, payable Feb 2, 2026; record date Jan 22, 2026.

Risks

  • Regulatory change risk - CMS’ proposal to exclude diagnosis information from unlinked Chart Review Records and to implement a new CMS-HCC model could reduce Medicare Advantage payments and affect revenues for insurers and integrated health companies.
  • Market expectation mismatch - the proposed 2.54% net all-in rate is materially below prior market expectations of 4-6%, increasing uncertainty for revenue and earnings forecasts in the Medicare Advantage space.
  • Reputational and legal risk - allegations that CVS, UnitedHealth Group, and Cigna used subsidiaries to divert funds may lead to further scrutiny or legal developments that could affect investor sentiment across the health insurance and PBM sectors.

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