Analyst Ratings January 27, 2026

BofA Cuts Brown & Brown Price Target to $90 After Mixed Q4 Results

Neutral rating retained as revenue shortfall, weaker organic growth and lower investment income pressure per-share outlook

By Ajmal Hussain BRO
BofA Cuts Brown & Brown Price Target to $90 After Mixed Q4 Results
BRO

BofA Securities lowered its 12-month price target on Brown & Brown (NYSE: BRO) to $90 from $94 while keeping a Neutral rating, citing the insurance broker's mixed fourth-quarter results. The company posted adjusted EPS of $0.93, ahead of the $0.91 consensus, but total revenue of $1.6 billion missed the $1.65 billion estimate and organic revenue declined 2.8% year over year. BofA attributes much of the gap to softer organic growth, lower-than-expected contribution from acquisitions and slightly weakened margins, and flagged a drop in investment income versus the prior quarter as an additional headwind.

Key Points

  • BofA Securities lowered its price target on Brown & Brown to $90 from $94 and maintained a Neutral rating.
  • Brown & Brown reported adjusted EPS of $0.93, above the $0.91 consensus, but total revenue of $1.6 billion missed the $1.65 billion estimate and organic revenue fell 2.8% year over year.
  • BofA cited weaker organic growth, lower acquisition contribution and slightly reduced margins - plus softer investment income - as the primary factors behind its revision.

Overview

BofA Securities has trimmed its price target on Brown & Brown to $90 from $94 and left its rating at Neutral. The firm said the revision follows the company’s most recent quarterly disclosure, which combined an adjusted earnings beat with a revenue shortfall and weakening organic performance.


Quarterly results in brief

Brown & Brown reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.93 for the quarter, exceeding the analyst consensus of $0.91. Total revenue was $1.6 billion, however, coming up short of the $1.65 billion estimate. Year-over-year, total revenue rose 35.7%, but organic revenue for the quarter declined by 2.8%.


BofA’s analysis of drivers

In its note, BofA pointed to several specific drivers behind the gap between its prior expectations and the reported result. The firm said the 2.8% decline in organic growth contrasted with its forecast of 0.4% growth and translated into a roughly $0.14 per-share negative impact relative to its model. Lower incremental contribution from acquisitions produced an additional roughly $0.20 per-share drag, and margins were slightly weaker than anticipated, exerting further pressure on per-share results.


Investment income and prior quarter comparison

Investment income for the quarter totaled $27 million, below BofA’s $28.4 million estimate and materially lower than the $56 million reported in the third quarter of 2025. BofA noted the third-quarter figure was elevated by additional investment income tied to cash held in connection with the Accession transaction, a factor that did not recur at the same scale in the latest quarter.


Implications highlighted

BofA’s downward price-target adjustment reflects the combination of a revenue shortfall, a decline in organic revenue, muted acquisition contribution and slightly compressed margins. While adjusted EPS exceeded consensus, the firm signaled these revenue and growth dynamics as reasons for a more cautious valuation relative to its prior target.


What investors saw in the numbers

  • Adjusted EPS: $0.93 vs. analyst consensus $0.91.
  • Total revenue: $1.6 billion vs. consensus $1.65 billion.
  • Organic revenue change: -2.8% year over year.
  • Investment income: $27 million vs. BofA estimate $28.4 million and vs. $56 million in Q3 2025.

The data points combine to explain why BofA retained a Neutral stance while lowering its target price: the firm identified concrete shortfalls against its expectations and quantified their impact on per-share results, even as the company produced an earnings beat on an adjusted basis.

Risks

  • Revenue shortfall - Total revenue missed consensus, which may weigh on valuation and investor confidence (impacts insurance and financial markets).
  • Decline in organic growth - A 2.8% drop in organic revenue versus a forecast of 0.4% growth reduced expected EPS by an estimated $0.14 (impacts brokerage and insurance services sectors).
  • Lower investment income and acquisition contributions - Investment income fell to $27 million and acquisition-related growth was weaker, together acting as headwinds to margins and per-share results (impacts financials and corporate M&A outcomes).

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