BNP Paribas Exane has adjusted its valuation view on Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR), reducing the firm's price target to $160 and leaving its rating at Underperform. The research note points to increased competitive strain within the cable sector and to a deviation from Charter's recent pricing cadence.
The analyst group observed that Charter did not implement the expected broadband price increases in the first quarter of 2026, instead choosing to raise television pricing only. That approach departs from Charter's prior pattern of modest broadband hikes in 2025 - specifically, $3 increases in Q1 2025 and $2 increases in Q3 2025 - which BNP Paribas Exane cited as context for its reassessment.
According to the firm, cable operators are encountering "incremental pressure" as subscriptions to fixed wireless access (FWA) and fiber services reached new highs in the most recent quarter. The note highlights examples of heightened competitive activity: Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) offering steep discounts in connection with the Winter Olympics and Optimum promoting multi-month free-service offers.
The research firm referenced InvestingPro data showing Comcast trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.8 combined with a 4.49% dividend yield, which BNP Paribas Exane views as indicating financial flexibility that can support aggressive pricing by competitors. InvestingPro analysis is also cited as indicating Comcast is currently undervalued on its Fair Value assessment.
In light of these market dynamics, BNP Paribas Exane lowered its expectations for Charter's broadband revenue metrics. The firm now projects a 2.2% decline in broadband average revenue per user (ARPU) for 2026, which contrasts with the consensus forecast of 2.3% growth. The updated model assumes Charter will implement just a single rate increase in 2026, with that increase likely occurring around mid-year.
Going beyond ARPU, the analysts signaled caution on near-term profitability. BNP Paribas Exane forecasts a 2.2% decline in Charter's EBITDA for 2026 and expects first-quarter 2026 EBITDA declines to be more pronounced than those seen in the fourth quarter of 2025. That outlook runs counter to consensus expectations, which anticipate an improvement in near-term EBITDA trends.
The note also situates Charter's challenges within a broader industry backdrop. Comcast has completed the spin-off of its media and entertainment arm, Versant, which is now trading independently on the Nasdaq following a pro rata distribution of Versant common stock to Comcast shareholders. The separation triggered a separate analyst action: Benchmark lowered its price target for Comcast to $44 while retaining a Buy rating.
Additional corporate moves at Comcast were highlighted by the research firm. Comcast’s Universal Ads division appointed David Shaw as Head of Global Expansion and is planning to begin expansion into the UK by 2026. Separately, NBCUniversal has entered into a partnership with RPA, FreeWheel, and Newton Research to deploy an AI-powered media buying capability across both linear television and digital platforms, representing a strategic push to optimize video content investments.
BNP Paribas Exane's revision of Charter's outlook reflects a combination of muted pricing execution by Charter and amplified competitive activity across pay-TV, broadband, and emerging FWA and fiber offerings. The firm’s estimates for lower ARPU and EBITDA in 2026 illustrate the research house’s view that pricing dynamics, not just subscriber trends, will be a key determinant of near-term performance in the cable and broader telecom sector.
About the data cited
The note draws on InvestingPro metrics for comparative valuation and on the analysts’ own modelling for Charter’s ARPU and EBITDA forecasts. InvestingPro data cited include Comcast’s P/E ratio of 4.8 and a dividend yield of 4.49%.
Bottom line - BNP Paribas Exane's revision narrows expectations for Charter's pricing power and near-term earnings, while underscoring how aggressive promotional activity among peers could pressure cable operators' revenue and profitability.