BMO Capital has lowered its 12-month price target for Ingredion (NYSE:INGR) to $120.00 from $123.00 and continues to assign a Market Perform rating to the stock. The firm cited persistent near-term headwinds tied to demand, costs and operations as drivers behind its decision to trim both its 2026 EPS outlook and the price target.
Market consensus among analysts places targets for Ingredion between $119 and $130, and the company currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.75, according to InvestingPro data. Those metrics suggest some market participants view the shares as relatively inexpensive on a simple earnings multiple basis even as the company navigates operational challenges.
The immediate catalyst for BMO’s revision was Ingredion’s fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.53, a figure that missed the consensus estimate of $2.60. The shortfall reflected weaker profitability in the Texturants and Hydrocolloids Solutions, or T&HS, segment, which unexpectedly declined on a year-over-year basis. Management and BMO flagged that the T&HS weakness was partly the result of lapping one-time SG&A investments in the prior period.
Pressure was not confined to T&HS. Ingredients’ Food and Industrial unit in the United States and Canada also underperformed. BMO attributed that underperformance to ongoing production disruptions at the Argo facility coupled with softer demand in those regional markets.
Ingredion has set full-year 2026 earnings per share guidance in a range of $11.00 to $11.80. At the midpoint this range implies roughly 2%-3% EPS growth year over year and brackets the consensus forecast of $11.44. BMO noted this positioning suggests 2026 could be another year in which the company grows below its historical algorithm, prompting the firm to lower its estimates for the period.
Additional company commentary and filings also described mixed results for the fourth quarter. While one release characterized the fourth-quarter earnings as surpassing analyst expectations, reported revenue for the period failed to meet analyst estimates. The juxtaposition of an earnings outcome described as favorable against a revenue shortfall underscores the uneven nature of the quarter and has informed both market and analyst responses.
Taken together, the earnings miss, segment-level softness and ongoing operational disruptions have led BMO to adjust its near-term financial outlook for Ingredion and to reduce its price target. Analysts' target range and the stock's relatively low P/E indicate divergent views among market participants about the company’s near-term trajectory versus longer-term valuation.