BMO Capital reiterated an Outperform rating and set a $249.00 price target on Allstate (NYSE:ALL) ahead of the insurer's scheduled earnings report on Wednesday. The firm's view accompanies data from InvestingPro that shows Allstate trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.44 and appearing undervalued relative to Fair Value estimates.
In its research note, BMO Capital said Allstate's capital position has fully recovered when adjustments are made for the sale of the Life & Health business and for parent company cash levels. That restored capital footing underpins BMO's confidence in the stock and informs the firm's longer-term cash-return expectations.
BMO now expects Allstate to reload its share repurchase authorization during the first half of 2026. As a result, the research house increased its buyback estimates by roughly $700 million in total across 2026-2027.
The firm also trimmed its estimate for Allstate's reinsurance expense, noting that the company's substantial annual reinsurance outlay of more than $1.1 billion is deflating. BMO anticipates the company will provide an update on its reinsurance program when it reports earnings, which could indicate whether some of the reinsurance savings will be used to buy additional protection.
Recent catastrophe loss disclosures from Allstate were also highlighted. The company reported $80 million in catastrophe losses for December 2025, equal to $64 million after tax. For the fourth quarter, total catastrophe losses amounted to $209 million, or $165 million after tax. Separately, Allstate recorded $46 million in catastrophe losses for November 2025, which translated to $36 million after tax.
Other brokerages have adjusted their views and targets in light of updated loss and expense assumptions. BofA Securities lowered its price target to $293 from $313 while maintaining a Buy rating after reducing its forecast for pre-tax catastrophe losses, a change that increased its 2025 earnings-per-share forecast. BMO Capital raised its price target to $249, reflecting a 2% increase in its 2026/27 earnings-per-share estimate. Meanwhile, Evercore ISI kept an In Line rating with a $233 price target, citing solid performance despite growth concerns.
Taken together, these analyst moves provide a snapshot of how capital recovery, reinsurance dynamics and catastrophe loss experience are shaping market assessments of Allstate heading into the company's earnings release.