Analyst Ratings February 4, 2026

BMO Sticks With Market Perform on Novo Nordisk After Q4 Beat; Soft 2026 Guidance Pressures Stock

Strong fourth-quarter results fail to offset guidance and U.S. pricing headwinds; BMO keeps $57 target as shares slip

By Avery Klein NVO
BMO Sticks With Market Perform on Novo Nordisk After Q4 Beat; Soft 2026 Guidance Pressures Stock
NVO

BMO Capital reiterated a Market Perform rating and a $57.00 price target on Novo Nordisk, noting that the company exceeded fourth-quarter revenue and earnings estimates by roughly 3% but issued 2026 guidance below Street expectations. The Danish drugmaker trades at a P/E of 12.82 and faces U.S. pricing pressures that BMO says will weigh on topline performance next year.

Key Points

  • BMO Capital reaffirmed a Market Perform rating and a $57.00 price target on Novo Nordisk; the stock trades at a P/E of 12.82.
  • Fourth-quarter results beat estimates on both revenue and earnings by about 3%, with EPS of $1.02 versus a $0.92 forecast and revenue of $12.53 billion versus an $11.99 billion forecast.
  • BMO flagged below-Street guidance for 2026 and highlighted U.S. pricing concessions - including the effects of Trump MFN deals and access efforts in the obesity market - as a drag on next year’s topline.

BMO Capital on Wednesday reaffirmed a Market Perform rating and a $57.00 price target on Novo Nordisk, the Danish pharmaceutical company with an approximate $213 billion market valuation. The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.82.

Although Novo Nordisk reported fourth-quarter results that surpassed consensus on both revenue and earnings by about 3%, BMO elected to maintain its neutral view. InvestingPro data cited by the analyst community indicates a wide band of price targets for the shares, ranging from $42.10 up to $74.51, and suggests the stock looks materially undervalued versus its Fair Value estimate.

BMO analyst Evan Seigerman highlighted that the company’s guidance for fiscal 2026 fell short of Street expectations. Management reported $48.6 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, but InvestingPro data referenced in available reports points to an anticipated revenue decline of 6% for fiscal year 2026.

Seigerman pointed to pricing concessions as a key factor pressuring the projected topline next year. The analyst wrote that Novo Nordisk is contending with "extensive pricing headwinds" in the U.S., citing the impact of Trump MFN deals and the firm’s efforts to preserve access in the obesity market as drivers of those concessions.

BMO noted early indications of demand for the company’s Wegovy oral pill, signaling potential upside in the emerging oral GLP-1 segment. However, the firm also said that concessions tied to injectable GLP-1 therapies are clearly weighing on revenue forecasts, offsetting some of the promise presented by oral formulations.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Novo Nordisk reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.02, ahead of the $0.92 consensus estimate. Quarterly revenue came in at $12.53 billion, topping the expected $11.99 billion. Despite those beats, the stock moved lower in pre-market trading and closed at $48.18 in the reported session.

Available analyst reports cited no subsequent rating changes or updated forward-looking recommendations beyond BMO’s reiterated stance. These developments reflect a mix of solid near-term operating performance and lingering questions about pricing dynamics and revenue sustainability into 2026.


Context and market implications: The juxtaposition of a meaningful quarterly beat with below-expectation guidance illustrates the tension between product-level demand and price concessions. Investors and market participants will likely watch how pricing negotiations and access strategies in the U.S. play out, given their stated influence on fiscal 2026 revenue projections.

Risks

  • Pricing pressure in the U.S. market - described as "extensive pricing headwinds" - could materially reduce revenue in 2026, affecting the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors.
  • Concessions for injectable GLP-1 medications may offset growth from oral GLP-1 products like the Wegovy pill, creating uncertainty for revenue forecasting within companies focused on obesity treatments.
  • If guidance remains below market expectations, investor sentiment toward the stock could stay negative, influencing equity markets and healthcare sector allocations.

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