BMO Capital on Friday cut its price target for Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN) to $24.00 from $25.00 and left its rating at Market Perform, citing a softer-than-expected earnings outlook and an uncertain fiscal 2026 trajectory.
The research firm pointed to a combination of demand weakness, a heavy turnaround and maintenance year, and higher energy and raw-material costs as the primary pressures on Olin’s results. These headwinds are affecting the company’s Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (CAPV) segment as well as its Winchester ammunition business, according to BMO.
BMO acknowledged management’s internal actions to control costs and preserve cash balances, but emphasized that a sustained recovery would be tied to a meaningful improvement in macroeconomic conditions - the timing of which the firm described as uncertain. The research house also raised caution about rising balance-sheet leverage in fiscal 2026, driven by reduced earnings power, and noted that this leverage could pose additional downside risk.
The modest one-dollar reduction in BMO’s price target reflects its maintained Market Perform view on the shares.
Recent company results have reinforced the cautious tone from the sell-side. Olin reported a fourth-quarter 2025 earnings miss, delivering earnings per share of -$0.75 versus a forecast of -$0.61. The company generated $321 million of operating cash flow in the quarter and holds $1 billion in liquidity, but the EPS shortfall and cautious guidance for the coming quarter have weighed on investor sentiment.
Following those results, several analysts adjusted their valuations and outlooks. Truist Securities lowered its price target to $20, citing ongoing pressure on Olin’s core earnings, particularly within the CAPV business. Goldman Sachs retained a Neutral rating and a $22 price target, flagging a challenging start to the fiscal year with expected first-quarter EBITDA below the prior quarter’s $68 million. RBC Capital reduced its target to $21, pointing to weaknesses across multiple segments including chlorine and epoxy.
KeyBanc Capital Markets trimmed its target to $26 but kept an Overweight rating, describing the start of 2026 as "disappointingly low" in earnings for the CAPV segment.
Taken together, the analyst moves reflect a broadly cautious posture as Olin navigates a confluence of weaker demand, operational disruptions from turnarounds and maintenance, and elevated input-cost pressure that have compressed near-term earnings and raised leverage concerns.
Context for investors
From a cash-flow and balance-sheet perspective, the $321 million of operating cash flow and $1 billion of liquidity provide near-term buffer, but BMO’s commentary underscores that those resources may be tested if earnings remain muted into fiscal 2026. The path to normalization, per the research firm, depends materially on macro conditions and the timing of recovery, elements that remain uncertain.
What analysts changed
- BMO Capital: Price target reduced to $24 from $25, Market Perform rating maintained.
- Truist Securities: Price target lowered to $20, citing CAPV pressure.
- Goldman Sachs: Neutral rating retained with $22 target; flagged Q1 EBITDA below $68 million.
- RBC Capital: Price target lowered to $21 due to multi-segment weaknesses including chlorine and epoxy.
- KeyBanc Capital Markets: Target reduced to $26, Overweight maintained; called CAPV start to 2026 "disappointingly low."
Note: The company-level figures and analyst actions detailed above are those provided by the firms and Olin’s reported results.