Overview
BMO Capital has adjusted its valuation for Novo Nordisk, raising the firm's price target to $57.00 from $47.00 while retaining a Market Perform rating. That new target sits under the reported analyst consensus high target of $74.79. Market metrics cited alongside the change show the stock trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.16.
Prescription dynamics and competitive context
BMO pointed to a flattening of total prescriptions (TRx) for Wegovy in the fourth quarter of 2025 relative to the third quarter as a key input in its revised view. The firm contrasted that trend with competitor Eli Lilly's Zepbound, which registered 17% quarter-over-quarter prescription growth in a broadly expanding incretin category. BMO framed the prescription data within an increasingly competitive landscape for GLP-1 and other weight-management therapies.
Sales forecasts and model changes
On the sales side, BMO lowered its 2025 Wegovy revenue estimate to DKK 77.8 billion from DKK 79.8 billion. That figure sits slightly under the consensus projection of DKK 78.4 billion. The analyst team attributed the downgrade to expected quarter-over-quarter pricing erosion, even as they acknowledged supportive elements such as Novo Nordisk's exclusivity agreement with CVS.
Looking ahead, BMO anticipates U.S. prescriptions will remain largely unchanged in 2026 compared with 2025. Based on management guidance signaling similar patient access in the U.S. next year, the firm expects gross-to-net erosion to produce negative year-over-year U.S. net sales growth in 2026. Their model assumes that weaker U.S. sales will be partly balanced by expansion in international markets, resulting in roughly 3% worldwide sales growth for 2026.
Financial fundamentals
Despite the near-term concerns on certain product and market dynamics, reported financial measures for the company remain robust. Gross profit margin is shown at 83.44%, with revenue growth of 16.64% over the past twelve months, metrics cited alongside BMO's analysis.
Additional developments affecting distribution and competition
The competitive and distribution landscape around Wegovy is shifting. Amazon Pharmacy has announced it will begin offering the Wegovy pill, enabling eligible customers to obtain the medication through insurance plans and providing a cash-pay option for those without coverage. LifeMD Inc has added the Wegovy pill to its telehealth offerings, noting it as the first FDA-approved GLP-1 pill for weight management available through that channel.
Regulatory movement is also underway in the U.K., where the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency is reviewing Novo Nordisk's application for an oral 25 milligram version of Wegovy, with a decision reported to be expected by year-end. Meanwhile, price reductions for obesity treatments Wegovy and Mounjaro have been announced in China, with material cuts reported in some provinces.
Analyst commentary and broader strategic context
BMO reiterated a separate price target of $46 for Novo Nordisk following discussions at a JPMorgan conference, and analyst Evan Seigerman observed that 2025 presented significant headwinds for the company. The firm highlighted heightened competition from Eli Lilly and additional GLP-1 entrants as a central challenge during that period.
Conclusion
BMO's move to raise the price target while maintaining a Market Perform rating underscores a nuanced outlook: solid financial metrics and international growth prospects are offset by flat U.S. prescription trends, expected pricing erosion, and intensifying competition. The company faces a set of distribution, regulatory and pricing developments that the analyst model incorporates into a moderated near-term sales trajectory paired with modest global growth for 2026.