BMO Capital has lowered its price target for Brown & Brown (NYSE: BRO) to $81.00 from $88.00, representing roughly an 8% reduction from its prior target, while leaving its Market Perform rating in place.
The analyst team, led by Michael Zaremski, adjusted its near-term financial outlook for the insurance brokerage after reworking underlying assumptions. BMO trimmed its EBITDA estimates for Brown & Brown by approximately 3.0% and now models organic growth of about 2.4% for 2026, a pace it says falls short of the consensus figure of roughly 3.0%.
Zaremski noted a mixed valuation picture for the stock. On a price-to-earnings basis, Brown & Brown appears historically discounted against the S&P 500, but that relative bargain is not echoed across enterprise value to EBITDA and free cash flow yield metrics, which do not show the same degree of discount versus the broader market.
On the question of near-term upside, BMO was explicit about its caution, saying it "does not currently see a positive catalyst that would get the stock to work in the very near term," signaling limited immediate upside potential under the firms current assumptions.
Recent company results provide context for the recalibrations. In its fourth quarter of 2025, Brown & Brown reported earnings per share of $0.93, topping the forecast of $0.91 by about 2.2%. Revenue, however, came in at $1.6 billion versus an expected $1.65 billion, leaving top-line performance below street estimates.
Longer-term shareholder returns remain a point of stability: Brown & Brown has sustained dividend distributions for 41 consecutive years and has increased its dividend for 33 straight years, a record cited in market data that underscores the companys history of returning cash to shareholders.
Other sell-side firms have also adjusted their outlooks. Mizuho lowered its price target to $84 from $90, citing revenue headwinds and trimming earnings projections for 2026 and 2027. Truist Securities reduced its target to $100 from $105 but maintained a Buy rating, while flagging concerns about growth and personnel losses at Howden, a business referenced by the firm.
Collectively, the revisions from BMO and peers reflect a cautious stance among analysts after mixed quarterly results and emerging headwinds to revenue and growth assumptions. For investors, the immediate takeaway is a more muted near-term expectation for share appreciation, balanced against a long history of dividend continuity.