BMO Capital has revised down its 12-month price target for Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ:TEAM) to $135, from the prior level of $195, while keeping an Outperform rating on the shares. The new target equates to roughly a 26% upside from the cited current share price of $106.87.
According to InvestingPro data cited in the update, Atlassian is trading below its Fair Value, indicating potential upside despite the cautious tone from some market participants.
Drivers behind BMO's change
BMO’s adjustment follows fresh inputs from the firm’s developer seat survey. The survey results were mixed: the portion of the exercise based on FRED data produced positive signals, while a separate sampling exercise yielded less encouraging outcomes. Those mixed survey findings contributed to a more restrained near-term view.
At the same time, BMO highlighted that Atlassian continues to exhibit strong underlying profitability, with a reported gross profit margin of 83.45%. The company also posted revenue growth of 19.51% over the past year, metrics that reflect durable business economics even as sentiment around the stock has turned cautious.
Near-term outlook and required performance
For the pending quarter, BMO expects modest revenue upside versus consensus. However, the firm warned that merely reiterating previous fiscal 2026 revenue guidance may not be enough to catalyze a meaningful share price rally. BMO stated that Atlassian will likely need to string together multiple quarters of revenue beats to change the current market view, pointing specifically to the "pronounced and negative sentiment" surrounding the stock.
Other analyst positions and corporate developments
Other sell-side coverage referenced in the update shows a range of views. Piper Sandler reiterated an Overweight rating with a price target of $280, citing strong cloud growth and customer expansion trends. BTIG has maintained its Buy rating and set a $220 target following Atlassian’s announcement of a 15% price increase for Data Center subscriptions, effective February 17, 2026. In contrast, TD Cowen lowered its price target to $175 from $205 and kept a Hold rating, attributing the change to concerns related to artificial intelligence.
On the corporate governance front, Atlassian has appointed Anil Sabharwal, currently a Vice President at Google, to its Board of Directors effective February 1, 2026. Two long-serving directors are stepping down. Sabharwal, who has previously served as a technical advisor to Atlassian, brings leadership experience from his tenure at Google; the company framed the board change as part of its leadership adjustments amid evolving market conditions.
What this means
In BMO’s view, the combination of mixed survey signals, entrenched negative market sentiment, and the need for consecutive revenue outperformance means investors should expect a period of performance scrutiny. Strong margins and double-digit revenue growth provide supportive fundamentals, but achieving the share-price appreciation implied by even a smaller target will likely require consistent operational beats over multiple reporting cycles.
Investors and market participants will be watching Atlassian’s upcoming results and management commentary closely for signs of sustained top-line acceleration and confirmation that recent pricing and leadership moves are translating into measurable financial progress.