Analyst Ratings February 4, 2026

BMO Capital Lifts Merck Price Target as Keytruda Patent Timelines May Shift

Analyst upgrade reinforced by management comments pointing to possible IP protection into late 2029

By Hana Yamamoto MRK
BMO Capital Lifts Merck Price Target as Keytruda Patent Timelines May Shift
MRK

BMO Capital has increased its 12-month price target on Merck to $135 from $130 and kept an Outperform rating after management flagged additional patent expirations that could extend Keytruda protection beyond 2028. The move reinforces prior upgrades and comes amid a wave of analyst target adjustments and company announcements, including dividend and revenue guidance details.

Key Points

  • BMO Capital raised Merck's price target to $135 from $130 and maintained an Outperform rating, citing potential patent expirations in May and November 2029 that could extend Keytruda protection.
  • Other brokerages have adjusted targets: Wells Fargo to $135 (from $125) Overweight; Morgan Stanley to $109 (from $101) Equalweight; BofA to $132 (from $124) Buy. Merck provided 2026 revenue guidance of $65.5B to $67.0B.
  • Merck declared a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share for Q2 2026, payable April 7, 2026; reports indicate Merck and Revolution did not agree on price in potential acquisition talks.

Merck's valuation and guidance

BMO Capital raised its price target for Merck (MRK) to $135.00 from $130.00 while retaining an Outperform rating on the pharmaceutical stock. At the time of the update, Merck was trading at $115.84 and carried a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.57, a level that InvestingPro Fair Value estimates treat as indicative of the shares trading below fair value.

Patent timing and Keytruda

The price-target increase follows comments from Merck management indicating that additional patents with expirations in May and November 2029 could extend the intellectual property protection for Keytruda past the drug’s currently expected 2028 patent expiry. BMO Capital analyst Evan David Seigerman highlighted that such an extension could "further smooth revenue declines associated with the Keytruda LOE [loss of exclusivity]" and could maintain protection through the end of 2029.

BMO said the prospect of extended patent protection supports the rationale behind its earlier upgrade of Merck shares and suggested there remains "significant room for MRK share appreciation throughout the year," even after characterizing Merck’s 2026 guidance as "conservative" in a recent company call.

Other analyst moves and company updates

Several other brokerages have also revised their Merck outlooks. Wells Fargo raised its price target to $135 from $125 and kept an Overweight rating, citing new product launches and a late-stage pipeline despite concerns tied to products losing exclusivity. Morgan Stanley moved its target to $109 from $101 with an Equalweight rating, reflecting Merck’s 2026 revenue guidance of $65.5 billion to $67.0 billion, which the firm interprets as a 1-3% increase versus 2025.

BofA Securities adjusted its target to $132 from $124 and maintained a Buy rating, noting a more cautious stance on loss-of-exclusivity products and U.S. Gardasil sales. In a separate corporate update, Merck declared a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share for the second quarter of 2026, payable on April 7, 2026.

Finally, Truist Securities’ commentary on Revolution’s stock mentioned reports that Merck and Revolution were unable to agree on price in potential acquisition discussions, a negotiation outcome flagged in analysts’ coverage.


Context and investor takeaway

The BMO action, supported by management’s patent-related remarks, reinforces a cautiously optimistic view of Merck’s near-term upside while also reflecting the market’s sensitivity to Keytruda’s loss of exclusivity timeline and the company’s 2026 guidance. The cluster of analyst target changes underscores how product launches, pipeline progress and exclusivity dynamics are shaping sell-side assessments.

Risks

  • Keytruda loss of exclusivity remains a material uncertainty for Merck's revenue trajectory; potential patent extensions are not guaranteed and market reaction would depend on actual patent outcomes.
  • Analyst views vary and firms have taken differing stances on revenue outlook and product-level risks, reflecting uncertainty around new product rollouts and the performance of loss-of-exclusivity products such as Gardasil in the U.S.
  • Negotiation breakdowns in potential acquisitions, such as the reported inability of Merck and Revolution to agree on price, illustrate deal risk and the potential for strategic opportunities to be lost.

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