Bernstein SocGen Group has reaffirmed an Outperform rating on Mondelez International, keeping an $84.00 price objective that suggests approximately 43% upside from the prevailing share price of $58.66. Analysts broadly remain constructive on the stock, reflected in a consensus recommendation around 1.85, or Buy.
The research note zeroes in on cocoa as a key cost input for Mondelez. Bernstein’s analysis indicates that Mondelez’s overall exposure to cocoa is roughly half that of Hershey, while also noting that, in 2023, cocoa likely accounted for about 8% of Mondelez’s cost of goods sold. That 2023 figure reflects the company’s product mix, which features relatively higher cocoa content compared with some competitors.
Financials cited in the note show Mondelez generated $37.65 billion in revenue over the last twelve months and reported a 31.05% gross profit margin. Bernstein projects that the company paid approximately $6,000 per ton for cocoa in 2025, and that cocoa costs in that year represented a mid-to-high teens percentage of the company’s cost of goods sold.
The firm also highlights a particular sensitivity to cocoa butter, which experienced peak inflation through 2024 before easing in early 2025. Bernstein points out that company management typically discusses cocoa costs in aggregate, even though components such as cocoa butter have followed distinct inflation paths.
On the use of any commodity-related savings, Bernstein anticipates that benefits from potential cocoa deflation would most likely be redeployed into efforts to grow the top line. The note specifically calls out plans to expand snack bar sales in international markets as a likely area for reinvestment. That approach sits alongside a shareholder-friendly payout profile: the company has maintained dividend payments for 25 consecutive years and currently offers a 3.42% dividend yield.
Market watchers will have an opportunity to reassess the company’s trajectory when Mondelez reports fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 3, 2026. In the run-up to that report, other brokerages have issued their own updates. JPMorgan trimmed its price target for Mondelez to $69.00 from $71.00 while keeping an Overweight rating, citing cocoa prices as a factor in its revision. Separately, Jefferies has adopted a cautious stance on the broader food sector for 2026, while identifying potential margin opportunities and growth levers for large-cap food companies, Mondelez included.
Analysts note that specific earnings and revenue figures for the upcoming report have not been released, leaving investors to monitor commodity trends and management commentary closely. With cocoa cost dynamics, margin considerations and international growth initiatives all in play, the company’s February results are likely to be watched closely by investors and analysts focused on consumer staples, food manufacturing and commodity-exposed supply chains.
Key points
- Bernstein reiterates Outperform on Mondelez with an $84.00 price target, implying about 43% upside from $58.66.
- Mondelez’s cocoa exposure is estimated at roughly half that of Hershey, with cocoa representing about 8% of COGS in 2023 and mid-to-high teens of COGS in 2025 at an estimated price of $6,000 per ton.
- Management is likely to reinvest any cocoa-cost savings into topline growth, notably expanding snack bar sales internationally; the company also has a 25-year dividend payment record and a 3.42% yield.
Risks and uncertainties
- Volatility in cocoa and cocoa butter prices could affect margins and earnings - this chiefly impacts consumer staples and food manufacturing sectors.
- Shifts in commodity inflation or deflation may not translate into immediate margin improvement if savings are redirected into growth investments rather than expense reduction - relevant to equity investors and dividend-focused holders.
- Analyst target adjustments and a cautious sector outlook introduce near-term uncertainty ahead of the company’s February 3, 2026 earnings report - this affects market sentiment in packaged foods and broader consumer goods stocks.