Bernstein has reiterated an Underperform rating on Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK) and held its price target at $85 as the company approaches its fiscal third-quarter earnings release on January 29. The research house’s positioning places its valuation near the lower end of analyst expectations, where InvestingPro data shows price targets for the name currently span from $81 to $157.
Bernstein highlighted a number of real-time retail and consumer indicators when forming its view. Its review incorporated average selling prices, markdown activity, consumer survey responses, search interest trends, and both foot and web traffic metrics. The firm also completed global channel checks in January 2026 across the US, Europe and China to round out its assessment of Deckers’ Hoka and Ugg franchises.
The firm’s near-term earnings forecast calls for third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.67, which Bernstein says sits at the low end of Deckers’ internal guidance and below consensus estimates. The firm continues to expect a gradual slowdown and some margin deterioration across both Hoka and Ugg, outcomes it believes are not yet fully reflected in street estimates.
Bernstein’s maintained $85 price target equates to roughly a 13x multiple on its projected fiscal year 2027 earnings per share of $6.46. By contrast, DECK currently trades at a P/E of 14.84 and a Price/Book of 5.9. InvestingPro data cited in the firm's review shows the stock has recovered about 15% since the October 25 earnings release but still sits deeply lower year-over-year - a precise 53.96% decline in price total return over the past 12 months - even as the company retains a "GREAT" overall financial health score.
Additional analysis from InvestingPro mentioned in the research notes suggests the market may view the stock as undervalued relative to its Fair Value estimate, while supplemental ProTips indicate management has been an active participant in share repurchases.
Brokerage views ahead of the quarter are split. Stifel has reiterated a Buy rating with a $117 price target, expressing the expectation that Deckers could beat revenue and adjusted EPS forecasts and potentially lift full-year 2026 guidance. Piper Sandler remains more cautious, keeping an Underweight rating and a $85 target, and flagged concerns about Hoka’s U.S. performance and the risk that wholesale demand commentary may be muted.
Needham removed Deckers from its Conviction List but retained a Buy rating while calling out what it described as "fundamental cracks" that showed up in 2025. Baird downgraded the name from Outperform to Neutral and set a $125 target, citing moderated growth assumptions for Hoka. In contrast, UBS maintained a Buy rating with a $157 target, emphasizing what it views as a strong growth opportunity for Hoka that could drive meaningful sales gains in 2026. These differing perspectives underline the range of outcomes investors are weighing ahead of the company’s quarterly report.
Investors and market participants will be watching Deckers’ upcoming report and management commentary closely for confirmation of the trends Bernstein and other brokers have signaled - specifically, indications of slowing growth, margin trajectory for Hoka and Ugg, and any wholesale channel commentary that could affect near-term revenue visibility.