Bernstein SocGen Group has reiterated an Outperform rating on Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) and kept its $100.00 price target ahead of the company’s forthcoming investor day. The firm projects that Starbucks will report a sequential acceleration in same-store sales growth for the fiscal first quarter of 2026, forecasting a 3.3% gain compared with the market consensus of 1.8%.
That projected 3.3% increase, if realized, would represent a return to positive comparable-store sales following six consecutive quarters of declines. Bernstein described the company’s current strategic direction as sound and noted early signs that momentum may be sustainable.
Bernstein expects the anticipated improvement in comparable sales to stem from several factors the firm identified: easier year-over-year comparisons, the effects of shuttering underperforming outlets, and enhancements to service levels, product innovation, and the in-store experience. These operational and mix-related drivers are cited as the most likely contributors to the sequential sales rebound the firm models.
Despite the brighter near-term sales outlook, Bernstein characterizes the overall risk/reward profile as more balanced following the recent rally in Starbucks shares. The firm specifically warned that additional gains after investor-day events are unlikely unless management presents detailed measures for a rapid recovery in margins. In other words, stronger same-store sales alone may not be sufficient to justify further material upside in the stock without a credible margin trajectory.
On the earnings outlook, Bernstein’s current visibility indicates earnings per share below $4 by fiscal year 2028. Given that EPS projection, the firm stated it does not expect Starbucks to trade above 30 times fiscal 2028 earnings, implying constrained valuation-driven upside under its baseline assumptions.
Other sell-side activity ahead of Starbucks’ investor day and earnings release reflects a range of views. Guggenheim has raised its price target to $90 while maintaining a Buy rating in advance of the company’s fiscal first-quarter 2026 results. Mizuho lifted its price target to $95 and kept a Neutral rating as investors await new performance targets at the investor day.
Jefferies maintained an Underperform rating with a $75 price target, expressing concern about the recent share rally and questioning the sustainability of sales growth. William Blair moved to upgrade Starbucks to Outperform, anticipating the first domestic comparable sales gain in two years and projecting that this will translate into positive full-year sales growth for fiscal 2026. BofA Securities raised its price target to $114 and retained a Buy rating, pointing to growth potential in China despite recent regional sales challenges.
These analyst moves and target adjustments arrive as Starbucks prepares both an earnings release and an investor day - events that market participants will closely scrutinize for clarity on top-line momentum, cost and margin levers, and management’s plan to convert operational improvements into sustainable profitability.