Bernstein has maintained an Outperform rating on Eli Lilly with a price objective of $1,300, reflecting the research firm's continued confidence in the drugmaker despite recent negative guidance from a key competitor. The $1,300 target implies nearly 30% upside from the prevailing market price of $1,003.46.
Data in market consensus show Eli Lilly trading modestly below its assessed fair value, with published analyst targets spanning from $770 to $1,500. That range illustrates divergent views among sell-side analysts about the company's near-term trajectory.
Bernstein highlighted that Novo Nordisk recently issued a preliminary disclosure for fourth-quarter 2025 and for full-year 2026 guidance, flagging an expected revenue contraction in the range of 5% to 13% for 2026. The company also noted an additional approximate 3% decrease when results are translated into Danish kroner.
According to Novo Nordisk's pre-release, management pointed to several drivers behind the planned decline: U.S. pricing pressures tied to the Most Favored Nation arrangement, patent expirations for semaglutide in certain international jurisdictions, and intensifying competition. Those factors, Novo said, are expected to materially weigh on sales next year.
Bernstein analyst Courtney Breen was quoted as saying the research team does "not take the Novo pre-release as cause for concern for LLY's guide tomorrow," indicating that Bernstein sees limited direct readacross between the two companies' near-term outlooks.
At the same time, Bernstein cautioned that Eli Lilly is likely to offer a wider guidance range than it has historically provided. The firm suggested the band could exceed $5 billion, driven by two primary uncertainties: the commercial rollout of Orforglipron and the implementation timeline and scope of a White House-led Medicare expansion. Both items create variable revenue risk that could make precise guidance more challenging.
Operational performance through the last twelve months has been strong: Eli Lilly reported revenue growth of 45.41% year over year and diluted earnings per share of $20.44. Investors looking to evaluate the company ahead of its earnings announcement on February 4 are being directed to comprehensive financial health metrics and more than 17 actionable ProTips contained in a detailed research report.
Those earnings were notable: in the fourth quarter, Eli Lilly's total revenue came in at $19.3 billion, topping the consensus estimate of $18.0 billion. The company also posted adjusted diluted EPS of $7.54, ahead of the forecasted $6.91. Following the results, Truist Securities reiterated a Buy rating on the shares, and UBS maintained its Buy stance with a $1,250 target as attention grows ahead of a competitor study from Novo Nordisk.
Beyond top-line and margin performance, Eli Lilly announced plans to invest in new manufacturing capacity. The company intends to commit more than $3.5 billion to a facility in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania, a project expected to produce roughly 850 permanent jobs and to focus on next-generation weight-loss medicines.
Regulatory and policy dynamics also feature in the outlook. Eli Lilly is among the firms included in the third round of the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program run by the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, a development that introduces another axis of pricing and revenue uncertainty.
By contrast, Novo Nordisk's guidance points to a sharper sales decline in 2026 than many analysts anticipated - the company forecast a 5% to 13% drop versus consensus expectations of about a 2% decline - underscoring divergent near-term pressures across leading diabetes and weight-management drugmakers.
Key takeaways
- Bernstein reiterates Outperform on Eli Lilly with a $1,300 target, implying near-30% upside from the quoted $1,003.46 share price.
- Bernstein sees limited readacross from Novo Nordisk's weak 2026 guidance but expects Eli Lilly to issue a wider guidance range due to Orforglipron launch and Medicare expansion uncertainty.
- Recent quarterly results beat expectations and Lilly plans a $3.5 billion-plus manufacturing investment in Lehigh Valley focused on next-generation weight-loss medicines; the company is also included in the third round of Medicare price negotiations.
Risks and uncertainties
- Commercial uncertainty around the Orforglipron launch - this affects revenue projections and guidance breadth for Eli Lilly, and impacts the pharmaceutical sector's near-term topline visibility.
- Implementation of the White House Medicare expansion and inclusion in the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program - these policy actions could alter pricing and reimbursement dynamics across the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries.
- Competitive and patent-related pressures highlighted by Novo Nordisk's guidance - changes in pricing, patent expirations, and intensified competition can rapidly shift market share and revenue expectations in the diabetes and obesity therapy markets.