Bernstein SocGen Group has reiterated an Outperform rating on Boeing (NYSE:BA) and held its $298.00 price target after the aircraft maker released fourth-quarter results. At the time cited in analyst commentary, that target represents roughly a 22% increase from Boeing’s then-current share price of $244.56. Separately, InvestingPro’s Fair Value model suggests the shares may be trading above intrinsic value according to that proprietary framework.
The company reported fourth-quarter core earnings per share of $9.92, a result that markedly outpaced both the consensus estimate of -$0.49 and Bernstein’s own estimate of -$0.31. Revenue for the quarter came in at $23.9 billion, above the consensus figure of $22.3 billion. For the full fiscal year, Boeing posted revenue of $89.46 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34.5% as reported by InvestingPro data.
Free cash flow for the quarter was reported at $375 million, exceeding the consensus expectation of $272 million. Management is expected to provide guidance on future free cash flow during its earnings call, and investor attention is likely to focus on those forward-looking metrics. Despite the quarterly improvement, Boeing’s levered free cash flow remained negative at -$6.35 billion over the last twelve months.
Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned highlighted the company’s strong revenue performance and noted progress on Boeing Commercial Airplanes production ramps, while saying investor interest would probably pivot toward the company’s cash guidance. Harned also called out a set of one-time items that affected the quarter’s results, including the Jeppesen sale, integration costs tied to the Spirit acquisition, and a new charge recorded in the Boeing Defense, Space & Security division.
The company’s fourth-quarter results were described elsewhere as particularly robust. Boeing reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $9.92, well above an anticipated loss of $0.45, and revenue of $23.9 billion compared with a forecast of $22.4 billion. Despite these outsized financial results, Boeing shares moved lower in pre-market trading following the release.
Additional details noted in coverage of the quarter include a 57% increase in fourth-quarter sales to $24 billion, framed as a recovery from a strike-affected fourth quarter in 2024, and an approximate $400 million reading for free cash flow in the period. Analysts from several firms adjusted their targets in response to the report: UBS raised its price target to $285, citing improved free cash flow and a renewed emphasis on quality and stability; RBC Capital lifted its target to $275; TD Cowen moved its target to $270 while labeling the results mixed because of a $565 million charge tied to the KC-46 program; and Vertical Research Partners increased its target to $281, pointing to operational stabilization and resolution of key portfolio items.
The mix of stronger-than-expected operating results, a modestly positive free cash flow outcome for the quarter, ongoing negative levered free cash flow over twelve months, and several listed one-time adjustments leaves the market parsing both near-term improvement and longer-term cash dynamics. Bernstein’s reiteration of an Outperform rating and a $298.00 target reflects conviction in upside potential, while InvestingPro’s Fair Value output and the pre-market stock move highlight investor caution.
What to watch next
- Company commentary and guidance on free cash flow during the earnings call.
- Progress updates on BCA production ramp activity and integration of one-time items such as Jeppesen and Spirit.
- Market reaction to the combination of large quarterly earnings beats and persistent twelve-month levered free cash flow negativity.