Analyst Ratings January 26, 2026

Bernstein Sticks With Outperform on ASML, Sets $1,642 Target Ahead of Q4 Results

Analyst team highlights strong import data, record China imports and elevated booking expectations as ASML approaches earnings report

By Priya Menon ASML
Bernstein Sticks With Outperform on ASML, Sets $1,642 Target Ahead of Q4 Results
ASML

Bernstein SocGen Group has reiterated an Outperform rating on ASML and set a $1,642 price objective ahead of the company's earnings scheduled for Wednesday, January 28. The firm points to import data and elevated expectations for bookings as evidence the quarter may beat consensus revenue estimates, while several other brokerages have recently adjusted their targets and coverage.

Key Points

  • Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated an Outperform rating on ASML and maintained a $1,642 price target ahead of the company's earnings report scheduled for January 28.
  • Import data cited by Bernstein points to potential Q4 revenue of EUR 9.7 billion versus the consensus EUR 9.5 billion, with China imports at a record EUR 3.27 billion in Q4.
  • Multiple brokerages have recently adjusted coverage or targets for ASML, including RBC Capital initiating coverage with a $1,550 target and Rothschild Redburn raising its target to 

Bernstein SocGen Group reaffirmed an Outperform rating on ASML Inc. (NASDAQ:ASML) and kept a $1,642.00 price target ahead of the chip-equipment maker's forthcoming earnings release on Wednesday, January 28. At the current share price of $1,407.63, that target implies roughly 16.6% upside, with the stock trading close to its 52-week high of $1,398.80.

The research note cited import data that suggests ASML could report revenue of about EUR 9.7 billion for the quarter, compared with the consensus estimate of EUR 9.5 billion. Bernstein also highlighted that imports from China reached EUR 3.27 billion in the fourth quarter - the highest quarterly level on record - and noted ASML's revenue growth of 22.77% over the last twelve months.

Bernstein flagged that the fourth-quarter booking figures will be an especially important datapoint, since this report will be the company’s last booking disclosure. The firm expects a very strong bookings quarter, saying both advanced logic manufacturers and DRAM producers raised their 2026 expectations during the fourth quarter of 2025.

The note also states that Chinese customers have likely placed substantial orders to support leading-edge expansion efforts, including purchases of deep ultraviolet - or DUV - technology equipment. Bernstein wrote that investor expectations for bookings have risen to at least EUR 8 billion, while the firm believes there remains potential for upside above that level.


Other broker-dealer commentary cited in the update shows a cluster of bullish repositioning around ASML. Bernstein’s $1,642 target and Outperform rating were reiterated with a focus on what the note described as overlooked potential in the company’s Deep Ultraviolet lithography business. Separately, Bernstein had also reiterated an Outperform rating with a $1,528 price target that reflected Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s increased capital expenditure plans for 2026.

RBC Capital initiated coverage of ASML with an Outperform rating and a $1,550 price target, calling out demand tied to artificial intelligence and growth in extreme ultraviolet lithography. Rothschild Redburn raised its price target to 

These analyst moves and raised targets were presented in the note as indicative of positive sentiment toward ASML and its position in the semiconductor equipment market.


What to watch next

  • ASML’s fourth-quarter booking disclosure - noted as the last such booking report - and its magnitude versus the elevated investor expectations for at least EUR 8 billion.
  • Reported revenue relative to the consensus EUR 9.5 billion estimate and Bernstein’s EUR 9.7 billion projection derived from import data.
  • Any confirmation of significant Chinese import orders, including purchases of DUV equipment, that align with the recorded EUR 3.27 billion in China imports for Q4.

Risks

  • ASML’s valuation appears slightly above its Fair Value estimate, indicating potential downside if growth expectations are not met - this affects equity investors in semiconductor equipment names.
  • Quarterly bookings are a critical variable and, as the last booking report, could diverge from elevated investor expectations of at least EUR 8 billion - impacting capital markets and supplier planning in the semiconductor supply chain.
  • Revenue outcomes that fall short of the EUR 9.7 billion projection (versus consensus EUR 9.5 billion) or a re-evaluation of Chinese import trends could introduce uncertainty for ASML and related semiconductor-equipment suppliers.

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