Price target change and analyst view
Bernstein SocGen Group has raised its price target for United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) to $136.00 from $129.00 and retained an Outperform rating on the stock. The new target implies meaningful upside versus the recent share price of $107.76, though it remains below the Street's highest target of $156. InvestingPro data cited in the review notes that UAL has produced strong returns over the past five years and carries an overall financial health rating of "GOOD."
Earnings performance and revenue mix
United reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.10 for the fourth quarter of 2025, a result that exceeded the street's expectations by 6%. The airline's quarter displayed outperformance across several revenue categories: loyalty program revenues rose 10%, premium services increased 9%, and Basic Economy climbed 7% - each advancing faster than total revenue growth, which was approximately 5% for the quarter. Over the trailing twelve months, United recorded diluted EPS of $10.20 and generated $59.07 billion in revenue.
Guidance and forward-looking metrics
For the first quarter of 2026, the airline provided EPS guidance in a range of $1.00 to $1.50, with a midpoint of $1.25 - a figure Bernstein notes is about 7.5% above consensus. Full-year 2026 guidance was given as $12.00 to $14.00 in EPS, with a midpoint of $13.00, and capital expenditures expected to be below $8 billion, consistent with street expectations. InvestingPro projections referenced by the analyst group show consensus EPS of $13.08 for fiscal 2026, and anticipated revenue growth of 8% for the year. At current levels, the shares trade at a PEG ratio of 1.31, indicating the stock is priced at a premium relative to near-term earnings growth expectations.
Analyst model adjustments and demand observations
Bernstein has raised its internal estimates for United, placing those projections slightly ahead of consensus. The firm now models first-quarter 2026 estimates approximately 3% above consensus and full-year 2026 estimates about 1% above consensus, citing a stronger top-line outlook. Bernstein also commented on regional demand patterns: despite lingering concerns tied to the situation in Venezuela, Caribbean demand has reportedly improved in recent weeks. Overall demand was described as healthy, with particular strength in business travel; Bernstein suggested that if current trends persist, the company's guidance could prove conservative.
Network expansion and capacity plans
On the operational front, United announced plans to operate 750 flights per day from Chicago O'Hare International Airport this coming summer, which the airline characterized as the largest schedule ever flown by any carrier at that airport. The planned schedule includes nonstop service to 222 destinations, comprising 47 international cities and 175 U.S. destinations, and adds new routes to multiple Midwestern cities. These capacity commitments align with the revenue mix gains noted above, particularly in premium products and loyalty-derived revenue.
Peer analyst moves and market sentiment
Other brokerages have also adjusted their valuations upward. BofA Securities raised its price target to $145, citing robust demand and strong premium revenue performance. UBS increased its target to $147 after noting that United's fourth-quarter results exceeded expectations and were in line with investor projections. BMO Capital Markets raised its target to $132.50, highlighting opportunities tied to aircraft improvements and growth in loyalty programs. Together, these updates reflect a broadly positive analyst response to United's recent results and guidance.
Valuation and investor considerations
Investors considering United should weigh the firm's sales and earnings momentum against its current valuation metrics. The reported PEG ratio of 1.31 suggests the shares are priced with a premium relative to near-term earnings growth expectations. At the same time, guidance consistency, higher-margin revenue streams and the decision to deploy substantial flying capacity at O'Hare form part of the basis for recent target increases.
This article provides a summary of analyst ratings, recent results and guidance for United Airlines based on reported company figures and broker commentary.