Bernstein SocGen Group on Wednesday lowered its 12-month price target for Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) to $75.00 from $84.00, yet left its rating on the snack maker unchanged at Outperform. The revised target remains meaningfully above the stock's recent quote of $59.47, with InvestingPro metrics classifying the shares as trading at Fair Value.
The firm said its decision was driven by management's cautious outlook for 2026, which came in below market expectations. Company guidance indicated that the expected easing of cocoa costs is now more likely to show material benefits in 2027 rather than next year. InvestingPro data cited by Bernstein shows six analysts have recently trimmed earnings estimates for the upcoming period.
Bernstein highlighted several specific operational and market pressures it sees affecting Mondelez in 2026:
- Potential volume disruption tied to retailer negotiations in European chocolate markets.
- Softness in the U.S. cookies category, which could weigh on near-term sales trends.
- An estimated $500 million impact from the phasing of cocoa inventory costs.
Beyond those items, the analyst noted that management plans to reinvest across the business, with increased spend in marketing, supply chain capabilities, channel expansion and incentive compensation. Those reinvestments are expected to exert pressure on near-term profitability even as they target longer-term growth and positioning.
Despite trimming the price target, Bernstein characterized the current valuation as "a solid entry point," saying management's guidance appears "appropriately conservative" and leaving open the possibility of upward revisions later in the year along with what the firm described as potential "outsized earnings growth in 2027."
Mondelez continues to return cash to shareholders: the stock yields 3.36% and, according to InvestingPro data cited in the research note, the company has raised its dividend for 12 consecutive years.
In quarterly results that preceded the analyst moves, Mondelez reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that surpassed consensus. The company posted earnings per share of $0.72 versus the $0.70 analysts had forecast, and revenue of $10.5 billion compared with an expected $10.31 billion. The firm also reported 5.1% organic revenue growth for the quarter.
Even with the beats, other sell-side analysts have reacted to cost pressures. Stifel cut its price target to $68 from $70, citing cocoa cost headwinds, while maintaining a Buy rating. After the earnings release the stock showed a slight decline in after-hours trading, which research notes attributed to a mix of broader market moves and ongoing cost pressures.
Investors interested in deeper financial analysis can consult the InvestingPro Pro Research Report for additional detail on Mondelez's financial position and growth prospects.