Analyst Ratings January 26, 2026

Benchmark Keeps Meta on Hold Ahead of Q4 Results; Analysts Diverge on Outlook

Benchmark flags uncertain return on invested capital as Meta readies fourth-quarter report; peers range from Buy to Outperform with mixed price-target moves

By Jordan Park META
Benchmark Keeps Meta on Hold Ahead of Q4 Results; Analysts Diverge on Outlook
META

Benchmark reaffirmed a Hold rating on Meta Platforms Inc. (META) ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings due Wednesday, January 28, citing uncertainty around future returns as the company increases capital spending and pursues new monetization pathways. The research firm called attention to potential deeper cuts at Reality Labs, the shift from an open Llama AI model to a closed Avocado model, and the integration and monetization of the Manus acquisition. Other major brokerages hold varied views, from Buy to Outperform, with differing revenue and EPS forecasts and updated price targets.

Key Points

  • Benchmark reiterated a Hold rating on Meta ahead of Q4 results, citing uncertainty around future returns as capital expenditures rise - sectors impacted: technology, digital advertising.
  • Benchmark highlighted potential Reality Labs cuts beyond a speculated 10% and flagged monetization questions around the shift from an open Llama AI model to a closed Avocado model and integration of Manus - sectors impacted: AI and ad tech.
  • Other brokerages show a range of views from Buy to Outperform with differing revenue and EPS forecasts and updated price targets, indicating varied expectations on growth and spending.

Benchmark has reiterated its Hold rating on Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) as investors await the company’s fourth-quarter results scheduled for Wednesday, January 28. Meta is trading at $658.76 and carries a market capitalization of $1.66 trillion. The company posts gross profit margins of 82% and a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 29.3, while InvestingPro assigns an overall financial health score of "GREAT."

Benchmark’s research note underlines a number of items for market participants to watch in the upcoming report. The firm pointed to the possibility that cost reductions at Reality Labs could extend beyond the currently speculated 10% cut. That unit, and how Meta manages it, remains a focal point in Benchmark’s assessment.

On key financial metrics, Meta reported diluted earnings per share of $22.63 and revenue of $189.46 billion over the last twelve months. Benchmark highlighted investor interest in whether the company can sustain its reported 21.27% revenue growth rate.

The research house also called attention to product and strategy shifts that could affect monetization. Benchmark noted the company’s move from an open Llama AI model to a closed Avocado model, and asked how that change will influence the ability to monetize AI capabilities. The firm further queried how Meta intends to integrate Manus, an acquired asset, into its advertising platform and what revenue opportunities that integration might create.

Another strategic concern flagged by Benchmark is Meta’s partner-financed capital expenditure approach. The firm expressed unease about the long-term implications of that strategy for the business, describing Meta’s forward return profile as uncertain. In its commentary, Benchmark stated the company faces "an unpredictable at best forward ROIC trajectory" as mounting capital expenditures pursue "an uncertain new monetization model vs formative competing capital."

Beyond Benchmark, a number of other sell-side analysts have published assessments ahead of the quarter. BofA Securities reiterated a Buy rating and forecasted fourth-quarter revenue of $59.2 billion and earnings per share of $8.27, both described as above consensus. Evercore ISI kept an Outperform rating and penciled in a $58.3 billion revenue estimate, characterizing expected results as a "Modest Beat & Bracket Q4" while noting risks to future expenditure assumptions.

Rothschild Redburn moved to upgrade Meta to Buy and raised its price target to $900, citing long-term value despite concerns about higher AI-related spending. Raymond James lowered its price target to $800 but maintained a Strong Buy rating and projected above-consensus revenue growth for 2026 and 2027. Wells Fargo trimmed its price target to $754 while retaining an Overweight stance.

Taken together, these analyst positions reflect a spectrum of views on Meta’s near-term results and longer-term investment case. While several firms remain constructive, Benchmark’s Hold reflects caution tied to capital allocation choices and the uncertain path to monetizing recent strategic shifts.

Risks

  • Uncertain forward ROIC trajectory due to increased capital expenditures and new monetization efforts - this affects investor returns in the technology sector and digital advertising markets.
  • Potential deeper-than-expected reductions at Reality Labs could signal further restructuring or cost pressures - relevant to augmented/virtual reality investment and product development.
  • Monetization risks tied to switching from an open Llama AI model to a closed Avocado model and integrating Manus into the advertising platform - impacts AI product strategy and ad revenue assumptions.

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