Analyst Ratings January 28, 2026

ASML Shares Rally After Record Orders and Bullish 2026 Revenue Range

Semiconductor equipment leader posts strongest-ever bookings and issues above-consensus guidance for 2026, prompting analyst reaffirmations

By Jordan Park ASML
ASML Shares Rally After Record Orders and Bullish 2026 Revenue Range
ASML

ASML's stock jumped following a record quarterly order intake and an upbeat revenue outlook for 2026. The company reported unprecedented bookings, robust regional demand patterns, and guidance that exceeds street estimates, while analysts sustained positive ratings and price targets. Valuation metrics and operating expense dynamics remain notable considerations.

Key Points

  • ASML reported record order intake of C13.1 billion, up 144% quarter-over-quarter and 89% above consensus.
  • EUV orders were C7.4 billion (up 105% QoQ); foundry and logic orders rose 158% QoQ; memory orders grew 128% QoQ.
  • Company provided 2026 revenue guidance of C34 billion to C39 billion with gross margins of 51%-53%, and expects significant EUV revenue growth while non-EUV revenue stays flat.

Overview

ASML Holding NV saw its shares climb as the company disclosed a record level of orders and offered a constructive view for 2026 revenue. The semiconductor equipment maker traded at $1,429.68, valuing the company at $550.34 billion, and was trading close to its 52-week peak of $1,473.59.

Orders and product mix

The company recorded its largest-ever order intake at C13.1 billion, a 144% increase quarter-over-quarter that beat consensus by 89%. Within that total, extreme ultraviolet (EUV) system orders amounted to C7.4 billion, up 105% from the prior quarter. Orders tied to foundry and logic customers rose 158% quarter-over-quarter, while memory-related bookings increased 128% from the preceding quarter.

Regional sales composition

System sales were led by China, which accounted for 36% of system sales and rose 17% quarter-over-quarter. The United States made up 17% of system sales and increased by 287% quarter-over-quarter. Taiwan represented 13% of system sales and fell 41% quarter-over-quarter. Japan accounted for 10% of system sales and surged 1266% quarter-over-quarter. The company anticipates ChinaE28099s share of revenue to decrease to roughly 20% by 2026.

Quarterly results and profit metrics

For the December quarter ASML reported revenue of C9.7 billion, modestly above consensus. Gross margins exceeded expectations by 30 basis points. Diluted earnings per share were C7.34, missing estimates by C0.24, a shortfall management attributed to higher operating expenses which were 775 basis points above consensus. Over the last twelve months the company maintained a gross profit margin of 52.71% and delivered a return on equity of 54%.

Outlook

ASML provided a March-quarter revenue midpoint of C8.50 billion, which it said is 560 basis points above street estimates. For calendar 2026 the company projected revenue in a range between C34 billion and C39 billion and expects gross margins of 51% to 53%. Management signaled meaningful expansion in EUV revenue, while non-EUV revenue is expected to remain flat.

Market reaction and valuation context

Following the announcements, Evercore ISI kept an Outperform rating and set a EUR1,300.00 price target. Other brokerages also stayed constructive: Wolfe Research reiterated an Outperform with a EUR1,400.00 target; JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating citing the size of orders; and BofA Securities reaffirmed a Buy with a EUR1,454.00 target.

An external valuation assessment flagged the stock as appearing overvalued according to a Fair Value analysis, noting a price-to-earnings ratio of 49.8. That same assessment identified 19 additional investment considerations related to valuation multiples and financial-condition metrics, and assigned an overall financial health score of 3.22, characterized as "GREAT." Year-to-date returns stood at 35.96% and the trailing 12-month return was 114.59%.

Additional context

The company disclosed fourth-quarter net revenue of C9.7 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year and a 29% rise versus the prior quarter, slightly above consensus of C9.6 billion. Full-year revenue increased 16%, and ASML expects calendar-year 2026 revenue to grow about 12%, with the midpoint of guidance at EUR36.5 billion.


Implications for markets and sectors

The results and guidance touch multiple parts of the equity market and semiconductor supply chain. Strong EUV demand would influence capital equipment suppliers and foundry and logic chipmakers, while regional order patterns could affect trade-related flows and end-market exposure for firms with concentrated China or U.S. revenue.

What remains uncertain

Although bookings and guidance were robust, the company noted elevated operating expenses in the quarter that reduced EPS versus consensus. Additionally, regional revenue mix expectations, especially the projected decline in China contribution to about 20% by 2026, signal ongoing shifts that could change customer-level exposure and timing for deliveries.

Bottom line

ASML reported record orders and provided a 2026 revenue range that is above consensus midpoints, prompting continued analyst support. At the same time, elevated operating expenses and valuation metrics will draw investor scrutiny as the company executes on its EUV growth pathway and on shifting regional revenue dynamics.

Risks

  • Higher operating expenses suppressed EPS in the December quarter and were 775 basis points above consensus - impacts earnings and near-term profitability.
  • Regional revenue shifts, including an expected decline in ChinaE28099s share to about 20% by 2026, introduce uncertainty in geographic exposure for the business and supply chain.
  • Valuation appears elevated with a P/E of 49.8 according to a Fair Value assessment, which could affect investor returns if growth assumptions are not met.

More from Analyst Ratings

Palantir Gains After Lofty 2026 Guidance; Analysts Split on Outlook Feb 2, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Starts Coverage of Nebius Group With Buy Rating, $108 Target Feb 2, 2026 Clear Street Starts Coverage on Caribou Biosciences with Buy Rating and $13 Target Feb 2, 2026 Goldman Keeps OLN Neutral at $22 as Olin Signals Rough Q1, Cost Cuts to Cushion Results Feb 2, 2026 Aletheia Capital Starts Coverage on Teradyne With Buy Rating, $400 Target Feb 2, 2026