Analyst Ratings January 26, 2026

Argus Stands By Buy Rating on Capital One After Q4 Results, Sees Share Pullback as Buying Window

Analyst maintains BUY despite earnings miss tied to higher credit loss provisions; notes attractive valuation on 2026 EPS while third-party data flags overvaluation by current market multiples

By Hana Yamamoto COF
Argus Stands By Buy Rating on Capital One After Q4 Results, Sees Share Pullback as Buying Window
COF

Argus kept its BUY rating on Capital One Financial Corp. after the company's fourth-quarter results, pointing to loan growth and improved net interest margins even as elevated credit loss provisions drove earnings below expectations. The firm views the recent share weakness - amplified by social media commentary on potential interest-rate caps - as a buying opportunity given a low multiple on Argus' 2026 earnings estimate, while InvestingPro metrics show the stock trading above its Fair Value.

Key Points

  • Argus maintained a BUY rating on Capital One after Q4 results despite an earnings miss driven by higher credit loss provisions.
  • Capital One reported 19.65% revenue growth to $32.78 billion over the last twelve months, with expansion in average loans and improved net interest margins.
  • Market reaction was influenced by social media commentary advocating a 10% cap on credit card rates; shares fell 9.13% over the past week and trade at $219.62, per InvestingPro.

Overview

Argus maintained a BUY recommendation on Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE:COF) following the bank's fourth-quarter financial release. The research house's stance aligns with the prevailing analyst consensus of 1.68 on the scale where 1 equals Strong Buy and 5 equals Strong Sell, according to InvestingPro data.

Earnings and underlying drivers

Capital One's reported results fell short of Argus' expectations primarily because the company increased credit loss provisions. Despite the earnings shortfall, management reported continued expansion in average loans alongside an improvement in net interest margins. Over the most recent twelve-month period, Capital One's revenue grew by 19.65%, reaching $32.78 billion.

Market reaction and headline risk

Argus noted that the stock has recently experienced downward pressure after social media posts from President Trump advocated for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates. While Argus acknowledged that this headline risk has weighed on sentiment, the firm expects such a measure would face significant hurdles to become law, observing that the industry would likely argue the policy could curtail credit availability for consumers. InvestingPro data shows the shares fell 9.13% over the past week and are trading at $219.62.

Valuation views

Argus described the current share price as "an attractive entry point," noting the stock is trading at just 10.7 times its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate on Argus' model. By contrast, InvestingPro's analysis indicates the stock is trading above its Fair Value and reports a current P/E ratio of 65.41, reflecting a divergence between Argus' forward-looking multiple and market-based trailing or alternative valuations.

Income attributes

Capital One has paid dividends for 31 consecutive years, and the company's current dividend yield stands at 1.47%.

Business scope

Capital One Financial offers a range of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through branches, the internet, and other distribution channels across the United States.

Further research and tools

For investors seeking additional detail, InvestingPro provides an in-depth Pro Research Report covering Capital One as part of its coverage of more than 1,400 U.S. equities. The platform also offers a Fair Value calculator that aggregates multiple valuation models.

Quarterly detail and analyst reactions

In Q4 2025, Capital One reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.86, missing the consensus estimate of $4.17 and registering a negative surprise of 7.43%. Revenue for the quarter was $15.6 billion, modestly above the forecast of $15.47 billion.

In a related strategic development, Capital One announced the acquisition of privately held Brex. Following that announcement, several sell-side firms updated their models and targets. BTIG lowered its price target to $270.00 from $308.00 but kept a Buy rating; the firm attributed the change to expected near-term dilution from the acquisition and a projected slowdown in share repurchases over the next two years. Wolfe Research also trimmed its price target to $280.00 from $294.00, citing higher projected marketing and operating expenses. Both BTIG and Wolfe Research continue to carry positive ratings on the stock despite the revised targets.

Bottom line

Argus' continued BUY recommendation reflects a view that the combination of loan growth, improving net interest margins, and a relatively low multiple on Argus' 2026 EPS estimate supports the case for accumulation after the recent dip. That said, independent market metrics from InvestingPro show the stock trading above its Fair Value on current multiples, and short-term volatility has been driven by both earnings-related provisions and policy-related headline risk.


Note: This article cites data and analyst commentary as reported; readers seeking a deeper valuation assessment may consult the referenced Pro Research Report and valuation tools.

Risks

  • Legal or policy risk from proposed interest-rate caps on credit cards could pressure card issuers and the broader consumer lending sector - impacts center on consumers, credit availability, and banking stocks.
  • Higher credit loss provisions can reduce near-term earnings, creating volatility for financial institutions with consumer lending exposure - impacts banking and credit-sensitive sectors.
  • Acquisition-related dilution and increased operating or marketing expenses may weigh on near-term earnings per share and share-repurchase programs - impacts bank capital allocation and investor returns.

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