Analyst Ratings February 3, 2026

Acadia Shares Slip After CHMP Signals Negative Vote on Trofinetide Marketing Application

Regulatory body issues negative trend vote; company to seek re-examination as analysts keep bullish stances

By Avery Klein ACAD
Acadia Shares Slip After CHMP Signals Negative Vote on Trofinetide Marketing Application
ACAD

Acadia Pharmaceuticals received a negative trend vote from the European Medicines Agency's CHMP on its Marketing Authorization Application for trofinetide, marketed as Daybue in the U.S. The company says it will request a re-examination when the CHMP opinion is formally adopted in February. Despite the regulatory headwind, several analysts have reiterated Buy or Outperform ratings and Acadia's balance sheet shows more cash than debt.

Key Points

  • CHMP issued a negative trend vote on Acadia's Marketing Authorization Application for trofinetide following an oral explanation meeting on January 27 - impacts regulatory outlook for the drug in Europe.
  • Acadia plans to request a re-examination of the CHMP opinion after the committee's final vote expected in February - procedural step that may affect timing of any European authorization.
  • Analysts from Canaccord Genuity, H.C. Wainwright, and Citizens maintained Buy or Outperform ratings with price targets of $32.00, $37.00, and $34.00 respectively; Canaccord projects combined peak U.S. sales for Daybue and Nuplazid of $1.5-2.0 billion and Acadia expects $1.7 billion combined sales by 2028.

Acadia Pharmaceuticals reported that the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) at the European Medicines Agency signaled a negative trend vote on its Marketing Authorization Application for trofinetide, its treatment for Rett syndrome.

The negative signal follows an oral explanation meeting with the CHMP held on January 27. Acadia said it expects a final CHMP vote in February and intends to request a re-examination of the committee's opinion once the vote is formally adopted.

Trofinetide is marketed in the United States as Daybue and already holds regulatory approvals in Canada and Israel for the treatment of Rett syndrome, a rare neurological disorder. Acadia also markets Nuplazid, a therapy indicated for Parkinson's disease psychosis.

Shares of Acadia were trading at $26.13, reflecting a market capitalization of $4.42 billion. Financial data cited by the company shows a balance sheet with more cash than debt.


Analyst reactions

Despite the CHMP development, several research firms maintained positive ratings on Acadia's stock. Canaccord Genuity reiterated a Buy rating with a $32.00 price target, pointing to the real-world experience with trofinetide, the clinical data that supported FDA approval, and the potential to manage side effects over time.

Canaccord also highlighted Acadia's sales potential, estimating combined peak U.S. sales from Daybue and Nuplazid in the range of $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion. In another analyst projection cited by the company, Acadia expects combined sales of Nuplazid and Daybue of $1.7 billion by 2028.

Other firms maintained favorable views as well. H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating with a $37.00 target, while Citizens kept a Market Outperform rating with a $34.00 price target. All three firms preserved their positive assessments despite the CHMP's negative trend vote.


Context and next steps

The CHMP's negative trend vote is an interim signal preceding a formal committee decision. Acadia has publicly stated it will seek re-examination if the committee's final opinion, expected in February, is adopted in its current form. The company has not disclosed additional regulatory filings or amendments beyond the planned request for re-examination.

For now, trofinetide remains authorized in the U.S., Canada, and Israel, and Acadia continues to emphasize its broader commercial opportunity across Daybue and Nuplazid as well as additional programmes in its pipeline.

Risks

  • Regulatory risk: A negative CHMP opinion, if adopted in the final vote expected in February, could delay or prevent European approval of trofinetide - this directly affects the pharmaceuticals and biotech sectors.
  • Market reaction risk: The CHMP's negative trend vote has already pressured Acadia's share price and market capitalization, illustrating sensitivity in equity markets to regulatory news for biotech firms.
  • Commercial execution uncertainty: Even with approvals in the U.S., Canada, and Israel, the potential for regulatory setbacks in other regions introduces uncertainty for projected peak sales of Daybue and Nuplazid, affecting revenue projections for the healthcare sector.

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